Poll Shows Tinubu Faces Growing Challenge As Obi Leads In National Sentiment
SBM Survey Highlights Deep Political Shifts Ahead of 2027 Election
Survey Captures a Changing Political Mood
A new SBM Intelligence voter sentiment tracker suggests that Nigeria’s 2027 presidential election may be heavily influenced by economic hardship, insecurity concerns and shifting voter loyalty.
Conducted across all six geopolitical zones, the survey paints a picture of declining satisfaction with governance performance and increasing openness to political alternatives.
The data signals early realignment in voter behaviour as political actors begin informal positioning ahead of the election cycle.
Tinubu’s Ratings Reflect Economic Anxiety
The survey places President Bola Tinubu at a net favourability score of minus 58.5, reflecting widespread public frustration.
Respondents rated government performance low across inflation management, employment creation, electricity supply and security delivery.
The North-West emerged as the only region showing relatively moderate approval levels, though the overall national sentiment remains strongly negative.
Obi’s Surge and Regional Shifts
Peter Obi emerged as the most popular candidate, with a net favourability score of plus 58.3 and strong performance across most regions.
Significantly, the survey shows Obi outperforming Tinubu even in the South-West, indicating potential erosion of traditional political strongholds.
Despite this momentum, the report notes that electoral success will depend heavily on turnout dynamics rather than sentiment alone.
Turnout, Regional Dynamics and Electoral Uncertainty
One of the survey’s key findings is the decisive role voter turnout could play in shaping the 2027 outcome.
Under high turnout scenarios, opposition support reportedly increases significantly, suggesting strong latent demand for political change.
Regional analysis shows high mobilisation potential in the South-East, South-South and North-West, while the South-West and North-East remain critical swing zones.
The South-West shows high undecided voters, while the North-East displays fragmented political preferences across multiple parties.
Early Signals of a Competitive Election
The survey concludes that Nigeria’s 2027 election is likely to be shaped less by party structures and more by voter sentiment driven by economic conditions.
However, analysts caution that fragmented opposition forces and turnout variability could still alter projected outcomes.
As political positioning intensifies, the report suggests that the election may effectively become a referendum on current economic and security realities.
