The Cost Of Connectivity: Why Millions Of Nigerians Still Cannot Access 5G

By TOSI ORE

NIGERIA’S transition towards faster mobile networks is gathering momentum, but the cost of accessing the latest technology continues to exclude much of the population.

Although 4G has overtaken 2G as the dominant mobile connection technology, 5G remains a small part of the market. Expensive smartphones, patchy coverage and high infrastructure expenses are limiting its reach despite strong consumer demand for mobile data.

Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) figures show that 2G accounted for 58.36 per cent of reported mobile connections in May 2023. By contrast, 4G represented 25.06 per cent, while 5G stood at just 0.12 per cent.

Three years later, the picture had changed considerably. By August 2026, 4G accounted for 54.77 per cent of connections, while 2G had dropped to 36.05 per cent. Although 5G had grown to 4.92 per cent, its share remained relatively small.

The figures reveal a clear shift towards newer technologies. Nevertheless, they also expose the economic barriers preventing millions of consumers from joining the transition.

The smartphone affordability crisis

A major obstacle lies in the price of compatible devices. Consumers cannot use 5G without a suitable smartphone, yet rising handset costs are making upgrades increasingly difficult for households already facing financial pressure.

Kingsley Uwazie, Chief Technology Officer of NATCOM Development and Investment Limited, which operates under the NTEL name, said demand for data was not the principal problem.

“The 5G ecosystem is in its maturity phase. It has been proven that there is an appetite. Nigerians have an appetite to consume data. But there is a barrier to acquiring the devices and using the technology,” he said.

Uwazie argued that the cost of owning and deploying 5G technology remained high. He also cited subsidies offered by MTN Nigeria and Airtel Nigeria for selected devices.

According to him, a phone that costs about ₦50,000 with a subsidy could sell for more than ₦200,000 without it. This difference illustrates the importance of pricing support in a market where many consumers cannot afford costly upgrades.

However, subsidies on selected models cannot automatically make the technology affordable to every household. Without a wider supply of lower-cost compatible devices, many consumers may continue using older phones.

Global pressures push handset prices higher

Nigeria’s smartphone affordability problem is also linked to developments in the global technology industry.

Omdia reported that Nigeria’s smartphone market shrank by 11 per cent in the second quarter of 2026. The research firm attributed mounting pressure on prices partly to rising memory-chip costs, which have been influenced by demand from artificial intelligence data centres.

Across Africa, shipments of smartphones priced below $100 declined by 34 per cent year-on-year during the quarter. That contraction is particularly significant for consumers who depend on entry-level devices.

Local market data also point to higher prices. A market assessment published by technology news platform Condia found that selected Tecno, Infinix, Oppo and itel models became more expensive between January and June 2026.

The midpoint price of the itel S-Series Ultra increased from approximately ₦263,500 to ₦316,400. Meanwhile, the Infinix Zero Series rose from about ₦550,000 to ₦637,500.

Omdia warned in June that smartphone prices in Nigeria could increase by another 15 to 30 per cent through the remainder of 2026 if component costs continued to rise.

If that forecast materialises, more consumers could postpone device replacement. As a result, the pool of potential 5G subscribers could expand more slowly, weakening the commercial case for further investment.

Operators face a costly expansion decision

Device affordability is only one side of the problem. Telecommunications companies must also determine whether they can justify the substantial costs of extending 5G coverage.

Uwazie estimated that operating a telecommunications site in Nigeria could cost between $2,000 and $3,000 monthly. He compared this with about $300 in China and $500 in India, citing power and transmission as key expenses.

These costs matter because operators need enough subscribers and revenue to sustain each site. Where only a small number of consumers own compatible smartphones, recovering the cost of deploying and maintaining 5G infrastructure becomes more difficult.

“If you deploy 5G in areas where only two people have 5G-enabled phones, it means those two people can’t cater for the operating expenditure required to deploy 5G,” Uwazie said.

Consequently, operators face a difficult commercial calculation. Expanding too quickly into areas with limited demand could increase operating losses, while delaying investment could leave potential customers without access to the technology.

This creates a cycle in which high device prices restrict subscriber growth and weak demand discourages network expansion.

Coverage gaps undermine the value of investment

Even consumers who purchase 5G-enabled smartphones may not receive consistent service. Network availability remains uneven, and coverage in a major city does not necessarily extend to every neighbourhood.

MTN’s 2023 pilot announcement listed Lagos, Abuja, Port Harcourt, Ibadan, Kano, Owerri and Maiduguri as intended launch cities, subject to coverage. Airtel’s initial rollout covered selected locations in Lagos, Ogun, Rivers and the Federal Capital Territory.

However, a December 2025 report based on Ookla analysis found substantial time-based access gaps in major urban markets.

Lagos recorded an average gap of 55.4 per cent, with the figure at approximately 50 per cent for MTN and 77 per cent for Airtel. Abuja’s average gap stood at 47.4 per cent.

These measurements do not show the percentage of land without 5G coverage. Instead, they indicate periods when compatible devices could not connect to the network during the measured time.

Even so, the findings raise questions about the value consumers receive from purchasing more expensive devices when reliable access is not assured.

Digital inclusion remains under pressure

The same affordability challenges threaten Nigeria’s wider digital inclusion goals. A GSMA smartphone adoption report found that only 27 per cent of the population owned a smartphone in 2024, while the mobile internet usage gap remained close to 60 per cent.

In April 2026, the NCC said it was exploring options for making cheaper smartphones available. Nigeria was also selected for pilot initiatives coordinated by the GSMA’s Handset Affordability Coalition, which seeks to expand access to affordable 4G smartphones.

Nevertheless, rising component costs could complicate these initiatives.

The stakes extend beyond mobile connectivity. Affordable smartphones and dependable internet access support digital banking, online education, electronic commerce and employment opportunities. Therefore, consumers who cannot afford suitable devices risk missing out on economic opportunities as more services move online.

Moreover, expanding 5G alone will not solve the wider problem of digital exclusion. Millions of people still need affordable smartphones and reliable mobile internet, including those who may not yet require 5G speeds.

A market that needs coordinated solutions

Wider 5G adoption will depend on progress across several fronts. More affordable compatible devices could expand the potential customer base, while improved coverage would make the technology more useful to existing and prospective subscribers.

At the same time, operators need sustainable ways to manage electricity, transmission and other infrastructure costs. Without such improvements, expansion into lower-demand areas may remain financially unattractive.

Public and industry initiatives to support affordable handsets could help close the access gap. However, their impact will depend on whether consumers can obtain suitable devices at prices they can realistically pay.

Ultimately, Nigeria’s 5G challenge is not simply about introducing a faster network. It is about making the technology affordable to own, reliable to use and commercially sustainable to provide.

Until device prices fall, coverage improves and operating costs become more manageable, the benefits of 5G will remain concentrated among a relatively limited section of the population.