Nigeria 2027: 84% Say They Will Vote As Insecurity, Distrust Loom

By DAVID JOHN-FLUKE

Voters Show Interest, But Confidence Wavers

NIGERIANS appear willing to participate in the 2027 general elections, but the willingness remains vulnerable to insecurity, institutional distrust and the influence of money in politics.

That picture emerged from Yiaga Africa’s National Voting Intentions Survey 3.0.

The research involved 2,470 Nigerians aged 18 and above across the 36 states and the FCT. Researchers conducted the survey in September 2026 through telephone interviews and, for the first time, face-to-face interviews in rural communities.

Overall, 84 per cent of respondents said they were likely or very likely to vote.

Although that represents an improvement from the previous survey rounds, deeper commitment has not increased at the same pace.

The share of respondents who were “very likely” to vote fell to 47 per cent from 52 per cent previously.

Violence Could Determine Turnout

Security remains a critical factor in whether intention becomes participation.

Sixty-one per cent of respondents said fear of violence could prevent them from voting.

The concern was even more pronounced in some regions. Yiaga Africa reported that 83 per cent said better security would increase their likelihood of voting.

The finding places election security alongside voter access and logistics as important factors in determining participation.

Institutional Confidence Remains Low

Trust in the electoral management system presents another challenge.

Only 34 per cent of respondents expressed confidence that INEC would conduct credible elections.

By contrast, 49 per cent said they trusted BVAS accreditation and IReV result transmission.

The gap suggests that some voters may have greater confidence in specific technological safeguards than in the institutions responsible for administering elections.

Meanwhile, awareness of electoral reforms has increased considerably, rising from 24 per cent in December 2025 to 62 per cent in the September 2026 survey.

Performance & Livelihoods Matter

Economic conditions also feature prominently in voters’ reported priorities.

According to the survey, 71 per cent of respondents rated the economy as poor or very poor.

Another 54 per cent disapproved of the President’s performance.

When respondents identified their motivations and priorities, 49 per cent cited a desire for change in leadership.

The economy and jobs accounted for 38 per cent, while security stood at 36 per cent.

The figures provide a snapshot of issues respondents say could influence their choices; they do not constitute a prediction of the election outcome.

Young Voters Less Certain

The survey identified a notable age gap in voting intention.

Only 40 per cent of young respondents said they were very likely to vote, compared with 64 per cent of respondents aged 61 and above.

Younger respondents also reported greater fear of electoral violence and lower confidence in INEC.

At the same time, they relied more heavily on social media for election information, creating additional challenges around misinformation and the quality of election-related information reaching younger voters.

Courts Also Face Public Distrust

Public confidence extends beyond the electoral commission.

Yiaga Africa found that 63 per cent of respondents had little or no confidence in the judiciary’s ability to resolve electoral disputes fairly.

In the South-South, the figure reached 81 per cent.

The finding highlights concerns about the entire electoral dispute-resolution chain, from pre-election litigation to challenges over declared results.

Calls for Stronger Election Safeguards

Yiaga Africa has consequently proposed measures targeting security, election administration, dispute resolution, political conduct and civic education.

The organisation wants security agencies and the Federal Government to publish a threat-based election security plan through ICCES, with particular attention to vulnerable regions.

It also wants INEC to publicly commit to real-time IReV uploads and publish and test its results-management procedures.

For the judiciary, Yiaga Africa called for early resolution of pre-election candidacy disputes and clear timelines for election petitions.

Political parties and candidates, meanwhile, were urged to present costed plans on security and the economy and commit to an enforceable anti-vote-buying pledge.

Civil society groups and the media were encouraged to focus voter education on providing practical assurances, especially for young people, women and communities that remain underserved.

The survey therefore presents the 2027 electoral environment as one in which willingness to participate exists, but several institutional and security conditions could determine whether that willingness reaches the polling unit.