Is Tinubu’s Political Dominance in Lagos Entering a New Phase? Examining the Shifting Dynamics of Power

Introduction

FOR more than two decades, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has remained the central figure in Lagos politics. Since leaving office as governor in 2007, he has continued to exert enormous influence over the state’s political direction, earning a reputation among supporters and critics alike as the state’s foremost political kingmaker.

However, recent political developments within the Lagos chapter of the All Progressives Congress (APC) have prompted renewed debate about whether Tinubu’s long-standing position as the undisputed political godfather of Lagos is beginning to weaken.

The commentary argues that while Tinubu remains one of Nigeria’s most influential politicians, the balance of power inside Lagos may be changing as new interests, old political structures and ambitious stakeholders increasingly seek greater influence over the state’s political future.

Tinubu’s Political Structure Was Never a One-Man Enterprise

According to the analysis, many Nigerians mistakenly believe Tinubu has exercised absolute control over Lagos politics entirely on his own since 1999.

The commentator argues that this interpretation overlooks the network of political institutions and influential figures that have long supported the state’s political machinery.

Among the most prominent is the Governor’s Advisory Council (GAC)—widely regarded as one of the most influential decision-making bodies within the Lagos APC.

The analysis suggests that Tinubu’s influence has historically depended not only on his personal popularity but also on the cooperation of senior political stakeholders, community leaders, traditional political blocs and long-established party structures.

Rather than functioning as a lone political commander, Tinubu is portrayed as someone operating within an extensive network whose members collectively shape many major political decisions in Lagos.

Before Tinubu, Another Political Godfather Held Sway

The commentary traces Lagos’ political evolution to the period before Tinubu emerged as the state’s dominant political figure.

It identifies the late Alhaji Ganiyu Dawodu, founder of the influential Justice Forum, as one of the earliest and most powerful political leaders within the Alliance for Democracy (AD).

Justice Forum is described as a coalition of respected grassroots politicians spread across different local governments in Lagos.

According to the analysis, many influential politicians belonged to this structure, giving Dawodu enormous influence over candidate selection and political negotiations during the early years of Nigeria’s Fourth Republic.

The commentator argues that Dawodu effectively served as Lagos’ principal political godfather before Tinubu consolidated control.

The Emergence of the Mandate Group

The analysis contends that Tinubu’s rise to political supremacy began after assuming office as governor in 1999.

Having benefited from the support of Justice Forum during his emergence, Tinubu reportedly moved to establish his own independent political organisation known as The Mandate Group.

According to the commentary, this marked the beginning of a gradual shift in the state’s internal political balance.

The Mandate Group eventually became one of the strongest political blocs within Lagos APC and, over time, rivalled—and ultimately eclipsed—the influence previously exercised by Justice Forum.

The commentator suggests Tinubu preferred building a political structure that answered directly to him rather than remaining dependent on existing political elders.

The Importance of Political Enforcers

Another central argument is that Tinubu’s political success relied not only on organisational structures but also on trusted political lieutenants capable of mobilising support at the grassroots.

Particular attention is given to the late Rauf Aregbesola, who is described as more than an ordinary political ally.

According to the analysis, Aregbesola combined organisational ability, grassroots mobilisation and political enforcement in ways that strengthened Tinubu’s influence across Lagos and later Osun State.

The commentator argues that Tinubu no longer possesses an equivalent political operative capable of exercising similar influence within the current political landscape.

The Presidential Ambition That Changed the Equation

The commentary further suggests that Tinubu’s pursuit of the Nigerian presidency altered the relationship between him and influential political stakeholders in Lagos.

It argues that while preparing for the 2023 presidential election, Tinubu sought continued backing from senior political leaders across the state.

In return, these groups allegedly retained considerable influence over political appointments, access to government patronage, contracts, appointments to boards and commissions, legislative nominations and other political opportunities.

According to the analysis, these arrangements helped preserve political unity while Tinubu pursued national office.

A Changing Political Reality

Following Tinubu’s election as President, the commentator argues that the political equation within Lagos inevitably changed.

Unlike when he served as governor or remained permanently based in Lagos, Tinubu now governs from Abuja.

The analysis suggests that his physical absence has created opportunities for previously restrained political interests to assert themselves.

It argues that many influential politicians who had long supported Tinubu’s ambitions are increasingly pursuing political relevance of their own.

The commentator characterises this as a natural evolution within political organisations where long-serving stakeholders eventually seek greater authority.

Justice Forum’s Re-emergence

The analysis also points to what it describes as the renewed relevance of Justice Forum.

According to the commentator, the APC’s governorship candidate—identified as the state’s current deputy governor—is associated with Justice Forum through his political and family background.

The argument suggests that this development reflects a broader shift in internal party influence rather than merely an individual political victory.

If sustained, the commentator believes Justice Forum could regain some of the prominence it lost after Tinubu established The Mandate Group.

Internal Party Tensions

Recent political events inside Lagos APC are presented as further evidence of changing internal dynamics.

The analysis references controversies surrounding the leadership of the Lagos State House of Assembly and speculation over succession planning within the state.

According to the commentator, reports of disagreements among influential party leaders illustrate that political authority within Lagos is no longer as centralised as it once appeared.

Whether these developments represent temporary disagreements or a more permanent redistribution of influence remains uncertain.

Can Political Godfatherism Survive the Presidency?

Perhaps the central question raised throughout the commentary is whether any politician can simultaneously serve as Nigeria’s president while maintaining complete control over a state’s political machinery.

The commentator argues that the demands of governing Africa’s most populous country inevitably reduce the time and political attention available for managing state-level structures.

It further suggests that Tinubu himself may recognise this political reality.

According to the analysis, should he complete a second presidential term, advancing age and the demands of national leadership could naturally diminish his involvement in Lagos politics.

An Opinion on the Future of Lagos Politics

The commentary ultimately concludes that Tinubu’s era as the unquestioned political godfather of Lagos may be approaching its final chapter.

Rather than suggesting an abrupt collapse of his influence, the analysis argues that Lagos politics is gradually transitioning toward a more competitive environment in which multiple political blocs, senior stakeholders and emerging leaders will increasingly shape the state’s future.

While Tinubu is expected to remain one of Nigeria’s most influential political figures for years to come, the commentator contends that the political dominance he exercised over Lagos for more than two decades may no longer be as absolute as it once was.

Whether that assessment proves accurate will depend largely on future elections, internal APC dynamics and the evolving ambitions of the political actors who have long operated within the structures Tinubu helped build.