Inside Adeleke’s Osun Victory: Voters, Rivalries & The 2027 Warning

By BIMBO ADEYEMI & TINA TOLUTOPE & MELVIN KOFFA & NJORIGE LYNUS

Adeleke’s Second Dance: How Osun Voters Rewrote the Political Script

GOVERNOR Ademola Adeleke has secured a second term in office after defeating the All Progressives Congress candidate, Bola Oyebamiji, in a closely contested Osun State governorship election.

The victory gives Adeleke another four years at the helm of the state. More significantly, however, it offers a revealing snapshot of how local political structures, voter sentiment, candidate personality, party divisions and national alliances are reshaping electoral calculations ahead of the 2027 general elections.

The Independent National Electoral Commission declared Adeleke, who contested on the Accord Party platform, the winner after he secured 511,067 votes against Oyebamiji’s 444,815. African Democratic Congress candidate Najeem Salaam finished third with 17,180 votes.

Adeleke won 19 of the state’s 30 local government areas, while Oyebamiji carried 11.

With 985,097 valid votes recorded, Adeleke’s winning margin stood at 66,252 votes.

But beneath those figures lies a more complicated political story.

A Victory Built Beyond Party Labels

Adeleke’s victory demonstrates the extent to which contemporary Nigerian elections can turn on the strength of individual candidates as much as the formal machinery of political parties.

The governor entered the election after leaving the Peoples Democratic Party and adopting the Accord platform. Yet the move did not prevent him from retaining the political coalition that had brought him to power.

His traditional strongholds remained important.

Ede North, Ede South and Egbedore continued to provide substantial support, while the Ife axis also contributed strongly to his campaign. His deputy, Kola Adewusi, maintained an influential political presence in the area.

Adeleke also made gains in areas traditionally associated with the APC.

That development was particularly significant because it suggested that the election was not simply a contest between established party structures. Voters in several APC strongholds were willing to cross traditional political lines.

The result therefore exposed a gap between political influence at the elite level and electoral influence at the polling-unit level.

When Political Heavyweights Failed to Deliver

Several prominent politicians discovered that endorsements do not automatically translate into votes.

Former governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola, who supported Oyebamiji, lost his polling unit to Adeleke. Senator Iyiola Omisore suffered a similar setback at his polling unit in Ile-Ife.

Former governor Rauf Aregbesola also failed to deliver his polling unit for the ADC candidate, Najeem Salaam.

These outcomes are politically significant.

They indicate that the authority of prominent politicians may be less decisive at the grassroots than previously assumed. Voters increasingly appear capable of separating the personalities of candidates from the influence of political patrons.

At the same time, politicians such as Senator Francis Fadahunsi and Wole Oke retained their polling units for their preferred political camp.

The mixed results make the lesson more complicated: political structures still matter, but their effectiveness depends increasingly on how well they connect with voters at ward and polling-unit levels.

APC’s Internal Problems

The APC entered the contest with significant structural advantages.

It controlled the federal government and remained one of the strongest political organisations in the South-West. Yet internal disagreements weakened its campaign.

Professor Hassan Saliu of the Nigerian Society of International Affairs argued that the party effectively handed Adeleke the advantage through its fractured primary process, the disqualification of aspirants and unresolved grievances.

The party’s political baggage also became an issue.

Previous APC administrations under Rauf Aregbesola and Adegboyega Oyetola had faced criticism over salary and pension issues. Although the current APC candidate was not responsible for those past policies, opposition campaigns could still associate him with the party’s broader record.

Adeleke, meanwhile, benefited from improved relations with workers and increased federal revenue flows to the state.

For many voters, therefore, the election became partly a judgement on governance and partly a judgement on political alternatives.

The Politics of National Alliances

One of the more intriguing dimensions of the election was Adeleke’s relationship with President Bola Tinubu.

Although Adeleke contested against the APC, his Accord Party adopted Tinubu as its presidential candidate. Adeleke also publicly reaffirmed his support for the president’s re-election in 2027 after securing his own mandate.

That arrangement illustrates the increasingly fluid nature of Nigerian political alliances.

State-level political competition does not necessarily follow the same pattern as presidential politics.

A politician can oppose the ruling party’s machinery in a governorship contest while maintaining a working relationship with the president at the national level.

For Adeleke, the strategy appears to have created political space between his own electoral contest and the broader APC-versus-opposition battle.

Technology & Voter Vigilance

Technology also played a role in the election.

INEC’s Result Viewing Portal allowed parties, observers and citizens to monitor polling-unit results as they were uploaded. Political parties operated situation rooms, while civil society groups used technology to track the voting process.

The deployment of more than 30,000 security personnel also helped contain the threats that had characterised the pre-election period.

Yet technology alone did not determine the outcome.

Voters still had to turn out, cast their ballots and protect them.

Civil society organisations, including Yiaga Africa and the Transition Monitoring Group, said the official results broadly reflected their observations and estimates.

That assessment does not erase reports of vote-buying, intimidation and harassment. Instead, it suggests that the election demonstrated both progress and continuing vulnerabilities within Nigeria’s electoral system.

ADC’s Bigger Problem

The result also presents a challenge for the ADC.

The party entered the Osun election with several prominent political figures in its leadership. Yet its candidate finished a distant third with only 17,180 votes.

That performance follows similarly modest results in Anambra and Ekiti.

The pattern raises an important question ahead of 2027: can the ADC convert national political visibility into genuine grassroots strength?

The Osun election suggests that prominent politicians alone may not be enough.

Without strong ward structures, polling-unit mobilisation and a candidate capable of connecting directly with voters, a party’s elite profile may not translate into electoral strength.

What the Result Means for 2027

The most important political consequence of Adeleke’s victory may lie beyond Osun.

The election demonstrates that opposition victories remain possible even when the ruling party possesses substantial political machinery.

However, it would be premature to interpret the result as a straightforward rejection of the APC across the South-West.

The Ondo APC has already cautioned against such a conclusion, arguing that Osun possesses distinctive political dynamics.

That caution is important.

Nigeria’s electoral politics remains deeply local. Historical loyalties, personalities, ethnic and community networks, incumbency, economic conditions and local grievances can produce outcomes that do not necessarily translate to neighbouring states.

Still, political parties will study the result closely.

For the APC, the election is a warning about internal cohesion, candidate selection and the ability to translate national political influence into local electoral victories.

For opposition parties, it is evidence that coordinated grassroots mobilisation can defeat established structures.

For Adeleke, the second mandate presents its own test.

The Burden of a Second Term

Winning re-election is one challenge. Governing after re-election is another.

Adeleke now faces expectations from workers, pensioners, young people and communities that supported him.

His victory speech identified agriculture, infrastructure and education among the areas in which he believed his administration had delivered.

The second term will therefore provide voters with an opportunity to judge whether those claims translate into sustained improvements.

Najeem Salaam’s concession message captured that responsibility. He congratulated Adeleke but urged him to examine areas where his administration had fallen short and work for all residents regardless of political affiliation.

That may ultimately become the defining challenge of Adeleke’s second term.

A Mandate With a Message

The Osun election did more than return a governor to office.

It exposed weaknesses within an established political party, demonstrated the limits of elite endorsements and showed the continued importance of candidate appeal and grassroots mobilisation.

It also offered evidence that electoral technology and voter vigilance can strengthen the credibility of results, even though significant concerns remain.

Most importantly, the election reminded Nigeria’s political class that voters cannot always be treated as extensions of party structures.

Adeleke’s victory was therefore not simply another off-cycle governorship result.

It was a political signal.

As parties prepare for 2027, Osun has offered them one clear lesson: political machinery matters, but voters still have the final move.