From Rallies To WhatsApp: How Tinubu, Atiku & Their Allies Are Reshaping Nigeria’s 2027 Campaigns

By NJORIGE LYNUS

A Presidential Contest Takes Shape Without the Spectacle of 2023

NIGERIA’S 2027 presidential election is approaching against a backdrop of subdued public campaigning, rising mobilisation costs and renewed debate about the country’s democratic culture. Although political parties have begun preparations and political allies continue to organise support, the nationwide rallies and extensive candidate tours associated with the 2023 election have not yet become equally prominent.

President Bola Tinubu, who is seeking another term under the All Progressives Congress (APC), and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) presidential candidate identified in the report, are at the centre of the emerging contest.

Yet the relative absence of highly visible campaign activities has raised questions about how both camps intend to reach voters, communicate their programmes and sustain public interest.

The formal campaign period began on 19 August 2026, according to the electoral timetable cited in the report. Therefore, the issue is the pace and visibility of campaign activities, not the absence of an official campaign window.

Several factors may help explain the situation. Economic pressures have increased the cost of organising rallies, while insecurity and logistical difficulties complicate nationwide travel. In addition, political parties are adjusting their strategies to accommodate changing media habits and the growing influence of governors, legislators and other political allies.

Nevertheless, the apparent shift in campaigning has implications beyond the size of rallies. It raises questions about the relationship between candidates and voters, the ability of smaller parties to compete, and whether political organisations can sustain meaningful public debate throughout the election season.

Democratic Participation & the Politics of Exclusion

Former APC National Secretary Waziri Bulama believes that the current political atmosphere reflects a longer decline in grassroots participation and internal party engagement.

Looking back at the movement that brought former President Muhammadu Buhari to power in 2015, Bulama recalled how academics, technocrats, civil society activists and political ideologues rallied behind a candidate they believed could reverse Nigeria’s governance problems.

According to him, supporters contributed their time, ideas and financial resources because they considered the campaign a national undertaking rather than merely a contest for political office.

However, Bulama argued that the enthusiasm diminished after Buhari became president, as some of those who had helped build the political movement felt excluded from decision-making. He also maintained that the APC’s internal structure changed over subsequent election cycles, with governors and other powerful figures assuming greater control over party organisation.

In his assessment, this shift weakened established networks and reduced the influence of activists and other stakeholders who had helped mobilise support in earlier years.

Bulama further argued that the ruling party was relying heavily on its control of government and its political connections instead of developing a persuasive national message.

His interpretation remains a political assessment rather than a definitive explanation for the current campaign pattern. Nevertheless, it highlights a significant question for political parties: can a campaign maintain public enthusiasm when its supporters have limited influence over the decisions and priorities of the organisation they helped build?

The concern also extends to opposition politics. Bulama alleged that legal battles and changes in the political environment had weakened opposition parties, while uncertainty surrounding political alignments could complicate their preparations.

These claims require examination against specific legal decisions and documented party developments. Even so, the wider issue is clear: a competitive election depends not only on the existence of candidates but also on parties’ ability to organise, communicate their ideas and offer voters meaningful alternatives.

Okorie Raises Concerns About Political Space & Electoral Confidence

Former presidential candidate Chekwas Okorie has expressed concern about what he describes as a narrowing political space ahead of the election.

Okorie argued that the electoral season should provide an opportunity for candidates to explain their programmes and for the incumbent to defend its record. Instead, he alleged that threats, intimidation and the possibility of violence had discouraged a more vigorous political contest.

He also pointed to the APC’s political influence, including its relationships with governors and its strength in the National Assembly, as factors shaping the electoral environment.

According to Okorie, the concentration of political power has heightened concerns about whether opposition parties can compete on equal terms. He warned that any attempt to interfere with citizens’ voting rights could have serious consequences for national stability.

These allegations should not be treated as established findings without supporting evidence. However, they underscore the importance of protecting political participation, enforcing campaign rules fairly and providing credible mechanisms for resolving electoral disputes.

Okorie also questioned the financial barriers facing smaller political parties. He cited claims that billboard advertising could cost as much as ₦150 million in the Federal Capital Territory and ₦250 million in some states.

If such prices apply to particular locations and advertising arrangements, they illustrate how expensive conventional campaign publicity can become. However, the figures require independent confirmation and should not be interpreted as uniform rates across every market.

For smaller parties, the cost of billboards, rallies and nationwide tours can restrict their ability to compete for public attention. Consequently, the affordability and fairness of political communication have become part of the broader debate about democratic participation.

Okorie expressed optimism that campaigning would become more active as the election drew closer, while warning that the credibility of the process would remain central to public confidence.

Age & Health Speculation Put Candidates’ Accessibility Under Scrutiny

The demands of a presidential campaign have also brought the ages and public accessibility of the leading contenders into the discussion.

Tinubu is 74, while Atiku is approaching 80, according to the report. Presidential campaigning can involve demanding travel schedules, long rallies, interviews, meetings with party leaders and frequent appearances across different regions.

Consequently, questions have emerged about how each candidate will organise public engagements and maintain a consistent presence throughout the campaign period.

However, age alone does not establish that a candidate cannot sustain an intensive campaign. Equally, limited public appearances do not prove that a candidate is unwell. Any assessment of accessibility should instead examine documented engagements, public statements, policy presentations and opportunities for voters to ask direct questions.

The APC has rejected suggestions that Tinubu’s health could prevent him from campaigning. National Chairman Nentawe Goshwe Yilwatda cited the President’s October 1 national broadcast and his own public assurances as reasons not to accept speculation about the President’s condition.

Meanwhile, former ADC National Chairman Ralph Nwosu expressed confidence in Atiku’s capacity to participate in the campaign.

These responses reflect the positions of the respective political camps. The more substantive electoral question, however, is whether each candidate will provide sufficient opportunities for voters to examine his programme, question his record and understand his plans for government.

Tinubu’s recent absence from Nigeria also became part of the political exchange. While the Presidency maintained that he remained well and continued to direct government business from abroad, the ADC used the episode to promote Atiku as a candidate who would offer a more physically accessible presidency.

Ultimately, the electorate will have to assess such competing claims against the candidates’ documented records, policy proposals and actual public engagements.

Campaign Finance: The Growing Divide Between Large & Small Parties

Money remains a major consideration in the organisation of presidential campaigns.

A nationwide operation requires transport, accommodation, security, advertising, campaign offices, publicity materials and communication equipment. Moreover, the cost of moving candidates and their teams between states can rise considerably when parties schedule several events within a short period.

Large rallies require additional spending on venues, canopies, sound systems, crowd management and coordination with local organisers. Parties must also provide the organisational support needed to maintain a consistent presence across the country.

Against the background of rising living costs, these requirements can place considerable pressure on campaign budgets.

Social Democratic Party (SDP) National Publicity Secretary Olu Agunloye said financial constraints were forcing political parties to reconsider their mobilisation strategies. He maintained that parties could no longer sustain the level of campaign expenditure associated with previous elections.

His argument draws attention to the different resources available to political organisations. Established parties with extensive networks and access to substantial funding may be better positioned to organise large rallies and maintain campaign offices across multiple states.

Smaller parties, by contrast, may need to prioritise local meetings, radio interviews, digital outreach and volunteer-led mobilisation.

Nevertheless, campaign expenditure should not be confused with political effectiveness. Expensive rallies can attract large crowds without necessarily producing lasting voter commitment. Similarly, a modest campaign can communicate a coherent message if it reaches the right audiences and offers credible policy proposals.

The challenge is to ensure that financial limitations do not prevent candidates from communicating with voters or reduce the election to a contest dominated by the parties with the greatest resources.

Governors & Political Surrogates Become Key Mobilisers

Political allies are assuming an important role as parties prepare to expand their public campaigns.

Governors, legislators, party officials, former officeholders and grassroots organisers can coordinate local meetings, communicate campaign messages and mobilise supporters in places that presidential candidates cannot visit frequently.

For Tinubu, the APC’s relationships with governors and influential political figures provide an established network for extending the President’s reach. Yilwatda has expressed confidence that APC governors across the geopolitical zones remain committed to the President’s re-election campaign.

The party chairman also rejected the suggestion that Tinubu was campaigning by proxy. He argued that the formal inauguration of the campaign structures had not yet taken place, making it premature to characterise the activities of political allies as a substitute for the candidate’s own campaign.

However, the prominence of political allies raises an important distinction between organisational strength and direct candidate engagement.

Governors can mobilise their supporters, but their influence does not guarantee that voters will support the presidential candidate they endorse. Moreover, local political rivalries, disagreements over succession and competing interests can complicate a national campaign.

The ADC faces a similar organisational task. Its campaign, built around Atiku and running mate Rotimi Amaechi, will need to coordinate political figures, local organisers and communication teams across the country.

For the opposition, the challenge extends beyond attracting endorsements. It must maintain a coherent national message, manage differences within its political coalition and persuade voters that its programme offers a credible alternative to the incumbent’s record.

Political allies can extend a candidate’s reach, but they cannot entirely replace direct engagement with the electorate.

Digital Campaigning Changes the Cost of Political Communication

The growing use of digital platforms has created additional options for candidates seeking to reach voters without organising physical events in every location.

Through social media, online advertisements, WhatsApp groups, campaign videos and volunteer networks, parties can distribute speeches, interviews and policy statements to audiences across the country. Digital communication can also help campaigns maintain contact with supporters between rallies and public appearances.

For well-established parties, these platforms provide another channel for amplifying messages through existing political structures. For smaller organisations, they offer an opportunity to reach potential supporters without bearing the full cost of extensive physical mobilisation.

Yilwatda has described the changing media environment as an opportunity that political parties should embrace. His position reflects the APC’s willingness to combine digital communication with conventional campaign organisation.

Nevertheless, online visibility presents its own limitations. A post attracting thousands of views does not necessarily persuade those viewers to vote for the candidate. Likes, shares and online endorsements also cannot independently establish the depth of grassroots support.

Furthermore, digital campaigns can spread misinformation, manipulated content and political hostility. Unequal internet access and differences in language and media habits can also limit the effectiveness of online-only strategies.

Therefore, digital communication works best when it complements direct engagement. Interviews, community meetings, radio discussions and town hall sessions can help candidates explain their programmes and respond to questions that online slogans may leave unanswered.

The effectiveness of a digital campaign should consequently be assessed not only by its reach but also by the quality of the information it provides and its ability to encourage informed political participation.

Campaign Visibility Must Translate Into Public Accountability

As Nigeria moves towards the January 2027 presidential election, the emerging campaign pattern presents challenges for both the ruling party and the opposition.

Tinubu must explain his administration’s record, respond to public concerns about the economy and security, and present his case for another term. Atiku must communicate a credible alternative, demonstrate the cohesion of his political platform and explain how his proposed policies would address the country’s challenges.

Both candidates will also need to show that their political networks can do more than organise endorsements. Their campaigns must provide voters with clear information, credible proposals and opportunities to question those seeking public office.

Meanwhile, smaller parties must find ways to remain visible despite rising costs and unequal access to political resources. Their ability to communicate effectively may depend on a combination of grassroots organisation, traditional media, digital platforms and targeted public engagements.

For voters, the significance of the campaign season lies in the information and accountability it should provide. Nigerians need to understand what candidates intend to do about economic pressures, insecurity, electricity, public services and other issues affecting their daily lives.

Consequently, the quality of campaigning cannot be measured by rallies alone. Large crowds may demonstrate mobilisation capacity, while online visibility can indicate reach, but neither automatically establishes the strength of a candidate’s policies or the depth of public support.

The more important measure is whether the campaign enables citizens to compare programmes, scrutinise records and make informed choices. As the election approaches, the responsibility rests on political parties to turn their networks, resources and communication strategies into a sustained national conversation about governance and the country’s future.