Osun 2026: Security Gaps And Pre-Election Violence
BY INWALOMHE DONALD
There are security gaps which may lead to displacement of voters that will undermine electoral confidence ahead of Osun 2026 elections. The incomplete implementation of security arrangements will undermine public confidence and raising concerns over the safety of voters, political actors and electoral institutions ahead of the August 15, 2026 Osun governorship election. I must condemn pre-election violence and thuggery in Osun State. I am urging swift action from security agencies and President Tinubu ahead of the election. I must condemn pre-election violence which has recorded 13 deaths in 44 Incidents.
If the outcome is predetermined and some political parties’ voice cannot compete freely, then people will ask what purpose the election serves. Elections should give Osun State citizens a real choice not merely confirm an outcome that was already expected. There is need for special security attention on Osun State because of incidents of violence, intimidation, and politically motivated attacks which had heightened anxiety among residents and stakeholders.
Ahead of the August 15, 2026, governorship poll, the Independent National Electoral Commission in Osun State said it has identified about 385 flashpoints in the state and 200 difficult terrains that will be hard to access.
Speaking on INEC’s preparation for the poll, INEC gave details of the risk assessment exercise done by the commission across the 30 local government areas in the state which had been shared with the heads of all security agencies in the state.
This was disclosed by the Resident Electoral Commissioner for the state, Oluwatoyin Babalola, while speaking at a meeting convened by the Deputy Inspector General of Police in charge of South West, Adegoke Fayoade, with heads of security agencies, religious leaders, electoral officials and the media.
On 15 August 2026, Osun state will head to the polls to elect its governor in what promises to be a keenly contested election. This will be another staggered election in 2026, and the possibly the last one before the 2027 general elections. It will therefore likely evidence the culmination of lessons learnt from previous elections, and gauge preparedness for the forthcoming general election. The stakes are also very high in Osun State.
Though candidates of political parties have been cleared by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to contest for the election, it is essentially seen as a race between the Accord Party, Africa Democratic Party and the All Progressives Congress (APC). Coming on the heels of the Ekiti loss by other parties to the APC, the Osun election will be a battle for dominance and supremacy. The APC will be seeking to halt its reversal of fortunes in 2022 election and bolster the confidence of its members nationwide that it is still a force to reckon with.
The APC wants to assert that its victory in Ekiti was not a fluke but indicative of the wide acceptance of the party. INEC will also be seeking to consolidate on its successful outing during the Ekiti State election. As always, significant attention will be on security agencies especially with the massive deployment recorded in Ekiti, its attendant challenges, and the likelihood of a repeat in Osun. My article highlights the security threats and mitigating factors as well as recommends measures to prevent electoral violence in the Osun election.
Osun State needs urgent special security attention because there is rise in politically motivated attacks and killings as the state prepares for the August 15 governorship election. I wish to call on President Tinubu to address critical security issues that are threats to the forthcoming governorship polls in the state.
Osun 2026 election is evolving into a three-bloc contest, increasing unpredictability and electoral tension. Documented incidents include violence, injuries, and kidnappings across multiple LGAs, indicating potential flashpoints. Local government disputes and perceived gaps in security neutrality pose risks to electoral credibility. Growing use of informal networks and digital platforms may amplify tensions and disinformation. The Osun governorship poll is a critical moment for, not just the people of the state, but for Nigeria’s democracy.
Inwalomhe Donald, Justice Research Centre,
