By OBIOMA TORI

When the Rains No Longer Come on Time, Nigeria’s Farmers Pay the Price

FOR generations, Nigerian farmers have relied on the rhythm of the seasons to decide when to prepare their land, plant their crops, weed and eventually harvest. Early rains traditionally signalled the beginning of another farming cycle.

That rhythm is becoming harder to trust.

Across the country, rainfall is increasingly unpredictable. The rains may arrive later than expected, disappear for weeks after planting or return in intense bursts that flood fields and wash away young crops. At the same time, insecurity is preventing some farmers from reaching their farms even when weather conditions are favourable.

The result is a growing agricultural dilemma in which farmers must contend with two uncertainties at once: whether the rain will come when needed and whether they will be able to safely reach their farms when it does.

For a country where much of agricultural production remains dependent on rainfall, the consequences extend beyond individual farmers. They reach markets, household incomes and the country’s already fragile food-security situation.

A Calendar Farmers Can No Longer Reliably Read

Farmers have traditionally used accumulated experience to determine when the soil is ready and when rainfall has become sufficiently established for planting.

That knowledge remains valuable, but changing weather patterns are making it less dependable.

An early rainfall can encourage a farmer to plant, only for the rains to disappear for several weeks. Seeds and seedlings may then wither before they become established. A farmer who waits for more dependable rainfall faces a different risk: a shortened growing season.

Heavy rainfall presents another problem. When intense downpours arrive, newly planted fields can be flooded and soil can be washed away, destroying crops before they mature.

Durojaiye Olusegun Philip, a Principal Consultant at Greenfield Agroallied Consult and Farming Systems Limited, said climate change had significantly disrupted Nigeria’s traditional agricultural calendar.

According to him, erratic rainfall, rising temperatures and prolonged dry spells are contributing to crop failures, food inflation and food insecurity.

He recalled that farmers once prepared their land around January and expected established rains from March or early April. That pattern, he said, has changed considerably.

“Now, you won’t get rain in March. April itself, hardly will you get rain. Then you start getting rain in June,” he said, describing the shift as a rewriting of the agricultural calendar.

When Rainfall Becomes a Gamble

The problem is particularly serious because most Nigerian farms depend on rain-fed agriculture.

Irrigation can reduce farmers’ dependence on rainfall, but installing and operating irrigation systems can be expensive. For many smallholder farmers, the cost remains prohibitive.

Philip said he experienced the uncertainty directly after cultivating 200 acres in 2025. Rather than relying solely on traditional planting periods, he had to monitor rainfall patterns before deciding when to plant.

Farmers who planted after early rains in March, he said, suffered losses when the rainfall stopped. Those who waited also faced losses when later dry spells affected their crops.

Such uncertainty can turn a single farming season into a sequence of difficult calculations.

Plant too early and the crop may dry up. Plant too late and the season may become too short. Plant during periods of heavy rainfall and flooding may destroy the harvest.

The Other Threat: Insecurity

Weather is only one part of the problem.

Across several parts of Nigeria, insecurity has made agricultural production increasingly dangerous. Farmers have been attacked, kidnapped or killed while working on their farms, while others have abandoned their fields because they fear returning.

In June 2026, suspected bandits reportedly attacked farmers in Ghandi District of Rabah Local Government Area of Sokoto State, killing four people and abducting at least 12 others.

A month later, at least 23 farmers were reportedly killed while working on farms in Kaura Namoda Local Government Area of Zamfara State.

Similar concerns have emerged in Niger State, where an attack in Pandogari, Rafi Local Government Area, reportedly forced farmers to flee their fields.

In Plateau State, killings in Barkin Ladi in May prompted Governor Caleb Mutfwang to reassure farmers and appeal to them not to abandon their farms ahead of the farming season.

The problem also extends beyond northern Nigeria. In August, Afenifere warned that kidnappings, killings and attacks on farmers in parts of the Southwest were driving agricultural workers away from their farms.

The Farm That Cannot Be Reached Is Also a Lost Farm

The consequences of insecurity are sometimes measured only in deaths, injuries and destroyed property.

But the agricultural cost is broader.

When a farmer cannot reach a field during the planting window, the land may remain uncultivated. When insecurity prevents a farmer from returning to weed, fertilise or harvest a crop, an entire production cycle can be disrupted.

Philip argued that such losses should be included in calculations of agricultural losses.

The acreage that would normally have been cultivated can be measured against the expected yield, he said. This would make it possible to quantify the production lost because farmers could not safely access their land.

He identified three broad categories of agricultural losses: crops that farmers could not plant because of insecurity, crops that failed after planting because of climate-related conditions, and post-harvest losses.

From the Farm to the Food Market

The effects eventually reach consumers.

When farmers plant less, harvest less or lose crops in the field, supplies entering markets decline. Where demand remains high, reduced supply can contribute to higher prices.

Philip said the changing agricultural calendar was already affecting food prices and food security.

Rising production costs are compounding the pressure. Seeds, fertiliser, pesticides, herbicides and mechanisation have all become more expensive.

He said the cost of ploughing an acre of farmland had increased from about ₦50,000 in 2025 to approximately ₦75,000 in 2026.

For farmers already facing uncertain rainfall, higher input costs increase the financial consequences of every failed planting decision.

Women & Smallholders Face Added Pressure

Ndudi Bowei, a member of the African Union Economic, Social and Cultural Council Technical Working Group on Climate Change, said farmers across Nigeria were already experiencing the effects of changing weather patterns.

She said some northern communities that traditionally experienced three to four months of relatively uninterrupted rainfall were now facing shorter wet seasons.

Smallholder farmers, particularly women, have had to adapt by changing planting periods, adopting early-maturing varieties and moving from rain-fed agriculture towards irrigation.

Bowei cited a project involving grassroots women farmers in which solar-powered irrigation pumps were provided to help them maintain production despite unreliable rainfall.

The experience, she said, demonstrated that farmers could no longer depend entirely on conventional rainfall patterns.

The Cost of Climate-Related Losses

Putting an exact financial value on climate-related agricultural losses remains difficult.

Bowei said farmers could lose money because they cannot plant at the expected time, cannot harvest when crops mature, obtain poor yields or are forced to sell produce under unfavourable conditions.

She said some estimates placed climate-related agricultural losses in Nigeria at billions of dollars annually, although precise nationwide measurement remains difficult.

A report attributed to Agora Policy and Environmental Assessment was cited as estimating losses of at least $100 billion annually from changing rainfall patterns and altered farming activities.

Such figures require careful scrutiny and robust data. Still, the broader point remains significant: climate-related agricultural losses occur throughout the production chain, not merely after crops have been harvested.

Moving Beyond Rain-Fed Agriculture

Philip believes Nigeria must reduce its dependence on rain-fed agriculture.

He called for greater investment in irrigation, greenhouses, urban farming, climate-smart agriculture and agroecological practices.

He also advocated investment in plant breeding and seed technology to develop crop varieties that can withstand heat and drought.

For farmers without large expanses of land, he said urban and soilless agriculture could provide additional opportunities.

Bucket farming, sack farming and soilless cultivation, he argued, can enable people to produce food even without conventional rural farmland.

Better Information Could Help Farmers Decide

Adaptation also requires better information.

Farmers need reliable forecasts that tell them not merely whether rain is expected but when it is likely to arrive, how intense it may be and how local conditions could affect planting decisions.

Bowei called for stronger early-warning systems and more localised, data-driven information.

She specifically identified the Nigerian Meteorological Agency and other relevant institutions as important sources of climate information for farmers.

Water harvesting, improved soil management, irrigation and access to climate-resilient inputs could also reduce farmers’ exposure to weather shocks.

A Farming Crisis With Two Faces

Nigeria’s changing agricultural calendar is not simply a story about late rainfall.

It is a story about a production system facing multiple pressures simultaneously.

Climate change is making rainfall less predictable. Insecurity is preventing some farmers from reaching their fields. Rising input costs are making cultivation more expensive. Together, these pressures increase the risks attached to every planting season.

The implications extend beyond farmers.

If agricultural production continues to become more uncertain, food supplies could become less predictable and prices could remain under pressure.

For Nigeria, adapting to the new agricultural reality will therefore require more than waiting for the rains.

It will require irrigation, better climate information, resilient seeds, stronger security around farming communities and reliable data capable of measuring losses from planting to harvest.

The traditional farming calendar may not have disappeared.

But for many Nigerian farmers, it can no longer be treated as a guarantee.