Four Years After Peace Deal, Ethiopia’s Tigray Crisis Returns
By FRANKLIN FRANCIS FREY
ETHIOPIA is facing a renewed security crisis after fighting erupted in and around the northern Tigray region, threatening to reopen wounds left by the country’s devastating 2020–2022 war.
The latest escalation follows months of political and military tension between the federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).
A Dangerous Return to Armed Conflict
The immediate confrontation centres on competing claims over who launched the latest offensive.
The Ethiopian government says Tigrayan forces attacked federal positions in Afar and Amhara.
Tigray authorities insist they were responding to attacks by federal forces.
The dispute has been accompanied by reports of fighting in several locations and the seizure of airports in Tigray.
The development forced Ethiopian Airlines to suspend flights to the region, highlighting the seriousness of the escalation.
The current confrontation follows renewed fighting in western Tigray in August.
That earlier violence had already raised questions about the durability of the Pretoria peace agreement, which ended the previous war in November 2022.
Opposition Alliance Raises the Stakes
The political dimension has made the situation even more complicated.
Only days before the latest clashes, seven armed opposition groups announced an alliance against Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government.
The coalition includes the TPLF, the Amhara Fano National Movement and the Oromo Liberation Army, among others.
The alliance brings together groups with different political and territorial interests.
Their common objective, however, is opposition to the federal government.
TPLF representatives have indicated that the alliance could involve military cooperation.
That development has increased fears that the latest fighting could evolve beyond a local confrontation in Tigray.
Humanitarian & Regional Concerns
The memories of the previous war remain particularly significant.
The 2020–2022 conflict caused enormous loss of life and displacement. Estimates cited by international sources put the death toll in the hundreds of thousands.
About one million people remain displaced in the wider region, according to recent reporting.
Consequently, another prolonged conflict could carry severe humanitarian consequences.
There are also wider regional implications.
Ethiopia’s deteriorating relations with Eritrea and tensions along its Sudan border could create additional pressure points. Analysts have warned that military escalation involving neighbouring states could transform an Ethiopian crisis into a broader Horn of Africa security problem.
Meanwhile, civilians are already responding to the uncertainty.
Residents in Tigray were reported to be accumulating food, cash and other essentials on Thursday as fears of a return to full-scale war grew.
The United States has urged the parties to pursue dialogue and avoid further violence.
Whether that diplomatic pressure can contain the crisis remains uncertain.
What is clear, however, is that Ethiopia’s 2022 peace settlement is facing one of its most serious tests since it was signed.
