By FATIMA HUSSAINI

When Love Meets Inflation: How Nigeria’s Economic Crisis Is Changing Family Plans

FOR many young Nigerians, marriage and parenthood remain deeply valued aspirations. What is changing, however, is the calculation that comes before those decisions.

Across campuses, workplaces, religious communities and social circles, questions about marriage increasingly come with questions about money. Can a prospective couple afford rent? Can they manage food and transport costs? What happens when a child needs medical care? How much will education cost? And, perhaps most importantly, can two people build a family without becoming overwhelmed by the cost of maintaining one?

These questions are not evidence that Nigerians have suddenly abandoned marriage or children. Rather, interviews with young adults suggest that economic uncertainty is increasingly influencing when, how and whether they pursue family life.

The shift is taking place against a broader demographic change. The United Nations says global fertility has fallen substantially over the past half-century, from 4.8 births per woman in 1970 to about 2.2 in 2024. More than half of countries and territories are now below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman.

Nigeria remains a high-fertility country by global standards, but its own fertility rate has also declined. World Bank data based on United Nations population estimates puts Nigeria’s total fertility rate at about 4.38 births per woman in 2024, compared with more than six births per woman in the early decades after independence.

The numbers tell one story. The experiences of young Nigerians reveal another.

The Cost Behind the Dream

Favour Ndukwe, a student, says she has long imagined having children. Yet the desire is accompanied by apprehension about childbirth, childcare and the wider financial demands of raising a family.

“Raising a child now in this kind of economy is not advisable,” she said, expressing concern about bringing children into circumstances where basic needs could become difficult to meet.

Still, the prospect of remaining childless does not fit easily into her vision of the future.

“I never see a future without having children,” she said.

That contradiction captures the dilemma confronting many young adults: the aspiration remains, but the economic route towards achieving it appears increasingly uncertain.

For people living in major cities such as Lagos, Abuja and Port Harcourt, housing is only one component of the calculation. Food, transportation, healthcare, education and unstable income streams add further pressure. Consequently, marriage can begin to look less like a single milestone and more like a long-term financial commitment for which many young adults do not feel adequately prepared.

Financial Readiness Before Marriage

For Akinluyi Ajisola, a recent graduate, financial preparedness has become central to the question of marriage.

She argues that prospective couples need substantial financial security before taking the step, particularly because the costs do not end with the wedding ceremony.

Her concern is what comes afterwards: feeding a family, paying school fees, meeting healthcare expenses and providing children with opportunities she believes they deserve.

The cost of childcare itself has become part of that calculation.

Ajisola recalled paying ₦80,000 for a pack of diapers and used the figure to illustrate how quickly seemingly ordinary expenses can accumulate when a household has a baby.

“I have considered not having children at all because of this economy,” she said. But she also left open the possibility of changing her mind if her financial circumstances improve.

That distinction is important. Her hesitation is not necessarily a rejection of parenthood. It is a calculation based on perceived capacity.

A Demographic Shift Underway

Nigeria’s changing fertility pattern is part of a much wider demographic transition.

According to the United Nations, global fertility has fallen almost continuously over the past five decades. The decline reflects multiple factors, including education, urbanisation, changing aspirations, access to contraception, later marriage and shifts in women’s participation in economic life. Economic pressures can interact with these factors, but they should not automatically be treated as the sole cause of declining fertility.

Nigeria therefore presents a particularly important case.

The country still has a relatively young and rapidly growing population, while fertility remains considerably higher than the global average. At the same time, the downward movement in fertility means that family formation is already changing.

The question is whether worsening economic conditions could reinforce that transition.

South Korea Offers a Warning From Elsewhere

South Korea illustrates how dramatically family formation can change when demographic and economic pressures persist for years.

The country’s total fertility rate fell to 0.72 births per woman in 2023, according to Statistics Korea. That was the country’s lowest recorded level at the time and was far below the replacement level of 2.1.

The South Korean experience cannot simply be transplanted onto Nigeria. The two countries have very different histories, economies, cultures and population structures.

Nevertheless, the comparison highlights a broader demographic question: what happens when a society reaches a point where people continue to value family life but increasingly struggle to reconcile it with housing costs, work pressures, childcare responsibilities and career expectations?

South Korea’s ultra-low fertility rate shows that delayed family formation can become deeply entrenched when the underlying conditions persist.

Nigeria Still Holds Strongly to Family

Nigeria’s response remains different.

Marriage and children continue to occupy an important place in the country’s cultural and religious life. Extended family networks also remain significant, although their ability to absorb rising household costs varies considerably from one family to another.

The Kano mass-wedding initiative provides one example of how public intervention can reduce the immediate financial barrier to marriage. The programme, organised under Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf, supported about 1,500 couples, with participants receiving financial assistance and household items.

Such interventions may reduce the cost of entering marriage. They do not, however, remove the continuing cost of maintaining a household.

A wedding can be subsidised. Rent cannot necessarily be.

A couple can receive household items at the beginning of their marriage. They must still pay for food, healthcare, transportation and other necessities months and years later.

That distinction raises a larger policy question about whether assistance should focus only on the ceremony or also address the economic conditions that determine whether young families can remain financially stable.

The Pressure Continues After the Wedding

For Opeyemi Matthew, a health-sector worker, the immediate problem is income.

“With my current income, I can barely support myself,” she said. “So, supporting a spouse and children is not something I can comfortably do right now.”

Her concern extends beyond salary. She says families need multiple sources of income to cope with emergencies, particularly healthcare expenses.

“If you settle with someone who earns the same or less, it will be a struggle,” she said.

For her, postponing marriage and parenthood is therefore an adaptation to economic circumstances rather than a rejection of family life.

“I’m choosing to delay because of the economy,” she said.

Choice or Constraint?

This is perhaps the central question raised by the changing attitudes.

Are young Nigerians choosing smaller families and later marriages because their preferences are changing, or are economic circumstances narrowing the range of choices available to them?

In reality, the answer may involve both.

Economic pressure does not affect everyone equally. Some young adults may postpone marriage because of housing costs. Others may prioritise education or career development. Some may want children but decide to have fewer. Others may rely on extended families, dual incomes or informal businesses to manage the cost.

There is therefore a danger in reducing the demographic transition to inflation alone.

What is clearer is that financial capacity increasingly forms part of the decision-making process.

Beyond Marriage to National Policy

The implications extend beyond individual households.

Fertility patterns influence labour-force growth, school enrolment, healthcare demand, housing requirements and the age structure of a population. The United Nations projects that global population dynamics will continue to change significantly as fertility falls in many countries.

For Nigeria, the challenge is more immediate and complex. The country must simultaneously respond to the needs of a large young population while ensuring that economic conditions do not make family formation increasingly inaccessible to those who want it.

That requires more than wedding assistance.

Affordable housing, decent employment, accessible healthcare, quality education and reliable social protection can all affect the practical environment in which families make decisions.

A Changing Family Equation

The evidence does not suggest that Nigerians have stopped believing in marriage or children.

Instead, the evidence points towards a more cautious approach to family formation among some young adults.

The desire remains. The timing is changing.

For a generation facing higher living costs and uncertain income, marriage increasingly begins with a financial question: Can we afford the life we want to build?

That question does not necessarily diminish the value placed on love or family. It reveals how closely private aspirations can be tied to public economic conditions.

When the cost of raising a family rises faster than people’s confidence in their ability to meet it, postponement can become a rational response.

And if that pressure persists long enough, today’s individual decisions could eventually become tomorrow’s demographic reality.