Fuel, Flights, Food At Risk If Oil Prices Keep Climbing — Expert

Warning of Imminent Price Shock

AN economic expert has cautioned that petrol prices in Nigeria may soon reach ₦1,000 per litre if ongoing military tensions between the United States, Israel and Iran escalate further.

Paul Alaje, Chief Economist at SPM Professionals, issued the warning during an appearance on Politics Today on Channels Television.

He said the conflict has already driven crude oil prices upward, with direct implications for Nigeria’s deregulated downstream petroleum sector.

Impact on Consumers and Businesses

Alaje explained that as global crude prices rise, refined products such as petrol, diesel and aviation fuel inevitably become more expensive.

He disclosed that recent market movements have already resulted in about a nine per cent increase in PMS costs locally.

By the end of April, he projected, pump prices could exceed ₦1,000 if the conflict persists.

Such an increase, he warned, would have ripple effects across the economy — from transportation fares and flight tickets to food prices and manufacturing costs.

“Sustained increases in fuel prices will push up production costs and ultimately affect households across income levels,” he said.

Mixed Blessing for Nigeria

The economist noted that Nigeria could experience a short-term revenue boost due to higher crude oil export earnings.

He said global reliance on petroleum products means that supply disruptions often translate into windfall gains for oil-producing nations.

However, he stressed that without strong economic management, the benefits could be outweighed by inflation, rising living costs and pressure on foreign exchange reserves.

Escalating Conflict

The Middle East crisis intensified following joint US-Israeli military strikes targeting Iranian security assets, after earlier diplomatic efforts failed. Iran has since launched retaliatory attacks, heightening fears of wider regional instability.

Energy markets have reacted sharply, with analysts warning that prolonged disruption could send oil prices significantly higher.

For Nigeria, the outcome presents a double-edged sword: higher oil revenue on one hand, and the prospect of steeper fuel prices and inflation on the other.

As global tensions deepen, consumers and businesses alike are bracing for potential economic turbulence in the weeks ahead.