Tinubu Shouldn’t Be Surprised If Voted Out In 2027 – Ex-SDP Presidential Candidate
IN an in-depth interview, Prince Adewole Adebayo, the former presidential candidate of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) in the 2023 election, shared his thoughts on the current state of Nigeria, the upcoming 2027 elections, and the debate around power rotation. Speaking with CHIBUZO UKAIBE, Adebayo addressed President Bola Tinubu’s recent remarks made during his trip to Brazil, where the President described his government’s reforms as “a bitter medicine” that would eventually yield positive results.
Adebayo began by commending Tinubu’s decision to engage internationally but noted that the lessons of Brazil’s success go beyond political tours.
“I’m happy that the President is going around the world. I’m happy that he went to Brazil because if ever his policy life is going to change, we will see whether he changes from Brazil,” he said. “His going to Brazil is the equivalent of Saul becoming Paul. In Brazil, what the Workers’ Party did to become what they are today was driven by good leadership, and that’s what we don’t have yet.”
Brazil Has What Nigeria Lacks — Leadership and Vision
According to Adebayo, the key difference between Brazil and Nigeria lies in leadership and social policy.
“What they have is good leadership and a poverty reduction manifesto backed by programs and policies,” he explained. “If you look at Bolsa Família, which reduced poverty by 27 percent in four years under President Lula da Silva, it’s the opposite of our ‘subsidy is gone’ policy that has increased poverty exponentially.”
He contrasted Brazil’s management of its state oil company, Petrobras, with Nigeria’s NNPC, describing them as “complete opposites.” He emphasized that Brazil’s strength comes from a balanced, mixed economy where both government and private sector thrive.
“Brazil is the third-largest economy in the Americas, next only to the USA by purchasing power parity,” he said. “They have indigenous industries growing from agriculture—coffee, soybeans—and at the same time, they manufacture aircraft and defense technology. The same country making money from producing aircraft makes even more from soybeans. That’s how you build an economy.”
Adebayo argued that Tinubu’s current economic policy contradicts the model that has succeeded in Brazil.
“Tinubu Can Learn, But Not as a Tourist”
The SDP leader said he was “happy yet disappointed” about Tinubu’s Brazil visit.
“I’m happy he went there because he can see how wrongheaded his own policies are,” he said. “But I’m not happy he went there to spend all that money when the solution is already here. He could have looked at the SDP manifesto — he used to be a member of the SDP. Why travel to Brazil as a tourist to marvel at their economy as if it’s magic? It’s not magic, it’s policy.”
Adebayo highlighted key economic contrasts:
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Brazil’s central bank is alarmed at 4.5% inflation, while Nigeria celebrates 22%, which he believes is closer to 30%.
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Brazil pays families to keep children in school, while Nigeria struggles with unemployment and out-of-school children.
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Brazil’s unemployment rate is around 5%, compared to Nigeria’s 30–40%.
“It’s like a person who refuses to clean his house and then asks his neighbor why their house is so clean,” he said. “Just adopt the healthy policy.”
Tinubu Should Have Gone to Argentina, Not Brazil
When asked whether he believes the administration’s policies align with its promises, Adebayo responded sharply:
“He went to the wrong country. He should have gone to Argentina, because his policies resemble Argentina’s economic chaos, not Brazil’s success.”
He used an analogy to describe the government’s economic missteps:
“You can ask women how to make an omelet. The easiest part is breaking the egg. But if you break the egg and don’t have a frying pan or fire, how will you make breakfast? The problem is that half our eggs are broken, and nobody has eaten yet.”
The Government Is Not Just Doing the Wrong Thing — It’s Doing the Bad Thing
Adebayo was direct in his criticism:
“I’m not just saying the government isn’t doing the right thing; they are actively doing the bad thing,” he said.
He argued that while the SDP promotes social investment to grow the GDP, the Tinubu administration is doing the opposite by making social divestments and hoping foreign investors like Petrobras will fill the gap.
“He ignored the SDP manifesto here but praised Brazil for following the same policies we recommended. Brazil is the benchmark today — and I welcome that debate. Let Channels TV organize a session: bring Wale Edun, the APC economic team, and myself. Let’s debate these policies before the Nigerian people.”
Adebayo outlined five key errors he sees in Tinubu’s approach:
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Believing poverty and economic growth can rise simultaneously.
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Neglecting immediate employment policies.
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Ignoring social investment in housing, health, and education.
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Failing to set measurable goals for inflation and unemployment.
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Spending money without tracking outcomes.
“Economic growth and poverty cannot move in the same direction,” he said. “If the economy grows, poverty must fall. Brazil succeeded by making social investments. Nigeria must do the same.”
Nigeria Needs Discipline in Economic Management
Adebayo urged the President to hold his financial team accountable.
“Tell the Governor of the Central Bank and the Minister of Finance: by the middle of my term, I want inflation to be single-digit. If you can’t do it, leave the job,” he said. “We must reduce unemployment and boost productivity.”
He added that the government’s spending patterns show a lack of transparency and impact.
“They are spending money, raising nominal figures, and celebrating it. But they’re not tracking outcomes,” Adebayo said. “Agricultural productivity is dropping, unemployment is rising, and inflation is soaring. You can’t say God loves Brazil more than Nigeria; they just have common sense, good leadership, and discipline.”
On 2027 Elections and PDP’s Power Rotation
Turning to politics, Adebayo spoke on the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) zoning its presidential ticket to the South ahead of the 2027 elections.
“That’s what they should have done in 2023,” he said. “There’s a popular demand for equity. My concern, however, is that when it goes north, they bring the worst person, and when it goes south, they bring the worst person too.”
He stressed that zoning should not replace competence.
“If it’s the turn of the north, pick the best person from the north. If it’s the south, do the same. Nigerians want good leadership, not just rotation.”
Adebayo reminded that zoning originated from the PDP itself.
“They were the ones who created the idea of ‘turn by turn Nigeria Limited,’ as Chief Bode George would call it,” he said. “But they must remember that Nigerians’ grievances go beyond rotation—it’s about the 16 years of bad governance.”
He added that PDP’s only advantage is that the APC has matched or even surpassed their failures.
“Nigerians haven’t forgiven the PDP for their 16 years in power,” Adebayo stated. “But APC has equaled them in mismanagement.”
Nigeria Needs More Than Rotation — It Needs Reform
Adebayo concluded that while zoning might ease political tensions, it won’t solve Nigeria’s fundamental problems.
“Rotation is fine, but Nigerians want results,” he said. “Good governance, equity, and leadership that puts people first — that’s what will bring real progress.”
He emphasized that what Brazil achieved through leadership and policy, Nigeria can also achieve — but only with discipline, accountability, and the will to prioritize citizens over politics.
“Brazil succeeded because of leadership, not luck,” Adebayo said. “Nigeria must adopt sound policies and honest governance. Until then, we’ll keep wondering why our neighbor’s house is clean while ours is not.”
