The Day Norway Chose Its Grandchildren Over Easy Wealth

Norway’s Oil Moment—and the Choice That Changed Everything

IN 1969, Norway struck oil in the North Sea.

The discovery of the Ekofisk field instantly altered the nation’s destiny. Almost overnight, this modest Scandinavian country found itself sitting on one of the largest offshore oil reserves ever discovered. Wealth on an unimaginable scale had arrived.

History offered plenty of examples of what usually followed such a discovery. Oil-rich nations often spent recklessly, built grand but unproductive projects, inflated their economies, and concentrated wealth in the hands of a few. When the oil dried up, debt, instability, and social tension followed.

Nigeria. Venezuela. Libya. The list of cautionary tales was long.

Norway paid attention.

Learning From Other People’s Mistakes

Instead of rushing to spend its new fortune, Norway asked a harder question: What happens when the oil is gone?

The answer mattered because oil, by nature, is temporary. No matter how vast the reserve, it eventually runs out. Countries that behave as if it never will often discover—too late—that prosperity built on extraction alone is fragile.

Norway’s leaders studied the global pattern and made a decision that went against political instinct and popular pressure. They chose restraint over indulgence, patience over popularity, and long-term stability over short-term applause.

A Radical Idea Takes Shape

In 1990, the Norwegian Parliament established what would later become the Government Pension Fund Global.

The idea was deceptively simple but revolutionary in practice. All state oil revenues would be placed into a single fund. That fund would invest globally—across stocks, bonds, and real estate. And crucially, Norway would only be allowed to withdraw a small portion of the fund’s value each year.

Originally set at 4 percent and later reduced to 3 percent, the withdrawal rule ensured that the fund’s principal would never be depleted. The remaining wealth would stay invested for future generations.

Many critics were baffled.

Why save money for people who had not even been born? Why not slash taxes, expand public spending, and enjoy the windfall while it lasted?

Norway’s answer was simple and unwavering: because future Norwegians will exist.

The Discipline That Made the Difference

In 1996, Norway made its first deposit into the fund—$150 million. It was modest compared to what would follow, but it marked the beginning of a historic commitment.

Then came the real test.

Election after election, politicians faced pressure to spend more. Economic downturns sparked calls to tap the fund “just this once.” Crises tempted leaders to bend the rules for short-term relief.

Each time, Norway refused.

The rules were followed without exception. Oil revenues flowed into the fund year after year. Withdrawals stayed within limits. Political discipline became the nation’s greatest asset.

Playing the Longest Investment Game in History

The fund’s managers adopted a strategy that avoided drama and speculation. They did not chase hot stocks or attempt to outsmart the market. Instead, they quietly bought small stakes in thousands of companies across the globe.

Today, the fund owns shares in roughly 9,000 companies in more than 70 countries. It holds positions in firms like Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon—alongside countless others.

By spreading risk and thinking in decades rather than quarters, Norway turned oil income into enduring financial power.

From Millions to Trillions

The results were staggering.

• By 2000, the fund was worth about $50 billion

• By 2010, it reached $500 billion

• By 2017, it crossed the $1 trillion mark

• Today, it has surpassed $2 trillion

For a country of just 5.6 million people, that equates to roughly $340,000 per citizen.

Even more remarkable, more than half of the fund’s value did not come from oil at all. It came from investment returns. The fund now earns more from global markets than Norway earns from selling oil and gas.

Securing a Post-Oil Future

Under the 3 percent rule, the fund now finances roughly a quarter of Norway’s national budget. It supports healthcare, education, infrastructure, and pensions—without draining the fund itself.

Norway’s oil will one day run out. In 30 years or 50, the exact date hardly matters anymore. By the time the last barrel is pumped, Norway will still possess a multi-trillion-dollar fund generating income indefinitely.

Choosing Tomorrow Over Today

Norway’s genius was not in finding oil. Many countries have done that.

The genius lay in choosing to save nearly all of it, invest it wisely, and resist every temptation to spend it too soon.

It required vision to think beyond the next election cycle. Discipline to obey the rules for decades. And humility to accept that future citizens deserved the same opportunities as those alive today.

Norway chose its grandchildren over itself—and rewrote the story of resource wealth forever.