Return Of GEJ In 2027: DOA
By MAY UBEKU
I know many have been expecting my thoughts on former President Goodluck Jonathan (GEJ), and trust me, I’ve been eager to share them too.
Let me start by saying: same ol’, same.
Three days ago, I made it clear, GEJ isn’t running. And I won’t be over-flogging the issue, but for clarity’s sake, here:
*Flashback to 2020–2022: The APC Deal That Didn’t Happen
In the run-up to the 2023 election, GEJ’s camp struck a deal with Buhari’s inner circle. The plan was for the APC to hand GEJ the party’s presidential ticket. Surprisingly, it made strategic sense. Buhari loved the idea, so did his men.
But when the deal got to GEJ, he gave one condition: he would only run if unopposed. He wasn’t going to subject himself to APC internal party wrangling or humiliation. Tough ask, but Abba Kyari agreed. And when Abba agreed, not even Buhari objected.
Then, Abba Kyari died in 2020, and leadership of Buhari’s team fell to Abubakar Malami, who lacked the political gravitas to pull off what Abba could. By 2022, with APC primaries heating up, El-Rufai and other Tinubu loyalists had seized the structure and declared full backing for Tinubu. In fact, El-Rufai was Tinubu’s last-minute savior. That’s why he’s deeply aggrieved today, because Tinubu failed to protect him when Nuhu Ribadu and others schemed him out of the new government. (Story for another day.)
*2027: Same Players, Worse Odds for GEJ
GEJ’s men are trying again. And I respect the effort. GEJ was a solid manager of the economy, and the South-South does deserve to finish its term. But the odds are far worse than in 2023. Come with me:
*Unopposed? Not Happening.
Like 2023, GEJ would be looking at demanding 100% backing from stakeholders and at least 70% party support before he’ll run. But let’s be honest, he’s not going to get that. The political terrain has changed drastically. Stakeholders are scattered across APC, PDP, and ADC, with the majority now in ADC.
Ironically, those same ADC actors are the ones who blocked him from running in both PDP and APC in 2023. They won’t support him now either.
PDP will offer him a ticket unopposed, but the party’s stakeholder club is too weak and politically irrelevant to make maximum impact with his ticket.
APC? Fully booked for Tinubu.
*Split Support Base
GEJ’s potential support base is now fragmented across four parties: PDP, APC, Labour, and ADC. Most of the excitement and majority numbers are in ADC, and GEJ’s candidacy doesn’t excite them, not because he’s not good, but because he brings nothing new, even though they know he can fix the economy. They want to see how someone else would do it differently while achieving the same GEJ goal. So, convincing them to mobilize for him would be as difficult as his attempt to get the APC ticket in 2023.
* “Our Turn” Politics and the South East Factor
The South East has never had the presidency. And in this cycle, with their candidate in the race, GEJ’s re-entry feels like a betrayal to a region that once supported him as Vice President, President, and post-presidency. The least he could do now is support their push. And he knows this.
* A Divided Opposition Helps Tinubu
If GEJ runs on the PDP ticket, he won’t just divide opposition votes, he’ll divide his own votes. More than half of his natural supporters (GEJites) have already moved to ADC. They won’t come back to the PDP to mobilize for him.
*PDP is a Dead Elephant
Let’s be honest: PDP is finished as long as Wike is in charge. It’s a dead elephant, waiting for scavengers. Anyone running on that ticket is wasting their time, unless their real aim is to help Tinubu by weakening the opposition.
GEJ doesn’t fit into this low-energy, Wike-sponsored, BAT-approved PDP package. Even a toddler can see this.
Finally, timing is everything. GEJ and his team are not political amateurs, they know the game. But of course, there is a reason why it is called politics.
