Power Sector Growth: Opportunity Rising, Losses Rising Too

By NINI NDUONOFIT-AKOH

Revenue Momentum Shows Opportunity
NIGERIA’S 11 DisCos recorded ₦570.25 billion in Q3 2025 revenue, a milestone that reflects rising digital economic activity, increased broadband penetration, and broader dependence on electricity-driven lifestyles—from streaming and cloud computing to fintech transactions and gaming lounges.

But the Grid Carries the Burden
Although 95.21% remittance performance was achieved, deeper forensic review of the figures shows that this percentage masks massive infrastructure leakage. The system still loses ₦108.75 billion per quarter to ATC&C inefficiencies—enough liquidity to expand national fibre, smart-metering rollouts, or power redundancy infrastructure if captured.

Billing and Collection Efficiency Improvements
Q3 data shows that DisCos:

• Billed ₦706.61 billion

• Collected ₦570.25 billion

• Improved collection efficiency by 4.63 percentage points

Yet these gains did not translate to proportional upstream market remittances.

Where the Money Went
Of the ₦381.29 billion remitted:

• ₦308.25 billion → NBET (generation costs)

• ₦73.03 billion → MO (transmission + administrative + regulatory charges)

Still, ₦19.18 billion remains outstanding from the ₦400.48 billion upstream invoice.

The Regional Trade Debacle
International bilateral customers paid only 38.09% of invoices, creating a geopolitical accountability gap in West African grid power-trade settlements. Domestic bilateral customers performed far better at 87.61% remittance compliance.

Frozen Tariffs, Frozen Progress?
With 59% of generation costs covered by federal subsidies under frozen tariffs, analysts caution that Nigeria’s power sector may be reporting economic growth numbers without welfare growth impact, echoing similar concerns in other national economic outlooks.

The Road Ahead
Experts maintain that Nigeria’s power future depends on:

• Rapid smart-meter expansion

• Power-theft deterrence

• Right-of-way reforms for transmission infrastructure

• Bilateral contract enforcement

• Security for power infrastructure nationwide

Until these gaps are closed, Nigeria’s electricity economy may continue to earn more and leak more.