Power On The Brink: How Political Appointments Are Pushing Nigeria Toward A Regulatory Blackout
By NINI NDUONOFIT-AKOH
NIGERIA’S electricity sector is entering one of its most fragile moments in two decades, as political interference, delayed executive decisions and a looming leadership vacuum threaten to incapacitate the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC)—the institution at the heart of the country’s power reforms.
What began as quiet murmurs within policy circles has now grown into an urgent national concern: the regulatory backbone of the power sector may soon be unable to function legally.
A Commission Built on Weak Foundations
Since its inception in 2005, NERC has rarely been led by experts steeped in electricity regulation, market design, energy economics or engineering. Successive administrations have consistently placed political loyalty above technical expertise, weakening the Commission’s institutional capacity and forcing chairmen to rely heavily on civil servants and inherited structures.
Stakeholders say the recent nomination of Abdullahi Garba Ramat—a former local government chairman with no record of power-sector experience—marks a new low. At a time when the electricity industry is facing mounting liquidity challenges, tariff instability, and infrastructure decay, the call for technically grounded leadership has never been louder.
A Crisis Years in the Making
The tension surrounding Ramat’s nomination is not about one individual. It reflects a deeper failure: Nigeria has not built a leadership pipeline within NERC. Career professionals who understand market rules, licensing frameworks and contractual obligations have been routinely sidelined, replaced by politically convenient appointees.
Now, the consequences of these choices are converging dangerously.
A Looming Leadership Vacuum
On 1 December 2025, the tenures of the NERC Chairman, Vice Chairman and at least one commissioner will expire. The Electricity Act 2023 is unequivocal:
-
NERC cannot operate with an acting chairman if both top positions are vacant.
-
Commissioners cannot serve in acting or interim capacity.
-
A minimum of five confirmed commissioners is required to form a legal quorum.
If replacements are not appointed and confirmed before expiration, NERC will be legally paralysed. It will be unable to sign orders, issue directives, approve tariffs, review market settlements, enforce metering regulations or hold DisCos accountable.
In essence, the electricity market could stall.
Stakeholders Raise the Alarm
Power sector analysts, consumer groups and industry advocates are openly warning of a regulatory shutdown.
Adetayo Adegbemle of PowerUp Nigeria describes the situation as “a dangerous uncertainty” that is eroding confidence among investors and operators.
Consumer advocates echo the concern. Adeola Samuel-Ilori of the Electricity Consumers Protection Forum warns that if commissioner numbers fall below the statutory threshold, NERC will effectively cease to exist as a regulator.
The fears are compounded by a history of geopolitical imbalance. Since 2005, the Commission’s top office has only been occupied by individuals from the North West, South-South and South East. Regions such as the South West, North East and North Central have never produced a chairman, a trend stakeholders say undermines institutional legitimacy.
Industry at Risk of Total Paralysis
Every part of Nigeria’s power ecosystem depends on NERC’s continuous operation:
-
Tariff review cycles and MYTO updates
-
Licensing of generating plants
-
Market settlements and dispute resolution
-
Metering frameworks and service-based regulations
-
Consumer protection and enforcement
Analysts warn that a shutdown would deepen liquidity shortfalls, worsen DisCos’ technical and commercial losses, shrink investor confidence and stall the Electricity Act’s decentralisation reforms.
Even short delays could freeze capital inflows and disrupt over 100 ongoing regulatory processes.
An Avoidable Collapse
Energy economists insist that this crisis did not have to happen. The Electricity Act provides clear guidelines for timely appointments, sector-specific qualifications and geopolitical balance. Yet delays persist.
To avert a breakdown, experts outline immediate steps:
-
Appoint and confirm a technically competent NERC leadership with strong regulatory or power-sector credentials.
-
Ensure geopolitical balance to restore public trust and national consensus.
-
Fill and confirm commissioner positions ahead of expiration to maintain the legal quorum.
-
Promote seasoned career professionals into strategic leadership roles.
Without swift action from President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Nigeria could face what analysts describe as a “regulatory blackout”—a moment when the country’s power reforms stall just as it seeks to stabilise tariffs, expand generation and enforce service-based performance rules.
For a sector already struggling with inefficiency, low generation output and chronic underinvestment, the collapse of NERC would not only be disastrous — it would be unprecedented.
