Nigeria’s Yuletide Economy: Falling Prices, Fading Purchasing Power

NIGERIA enters the Yuletide season with unusual contradictions. Food prices are declining, inflation is slowing and markets are well stocked—yet traders complain of poor sales and families still count every naira. It is a season of cautious optimism shadowed by economic reality.

Last year’s Christmas was defined by shock reforms, fuel price hikes and a collapsing naira. Transportation costs surged, food inflation crossed 40 per cent and millions slipped deeper into poverty. This year, the Tinubu administration points to progress: price moderation, exchange rate stability and targeted food imports.

The data supports some optimism. Rice prices are down by nearly 50 per cent in some markets. Beans, palm oil, yams and tomatoes have followed suit. Agricultural imports surged following a six-month duty-free policy aimed at crashing prices.

But analysts argue the strategy exposed a deeper weakness. Nigeria’s inflation problem is no longer just about prices—it is about income erosion. Years of inflation have hollowed out household finances, leaving consumers unable to take advantage of cheaper goods.

Former AFAN president Kabir Ibrahim describes the situation bluntly: food is cheaper, but Nigerians have no money. Economist Muda Yusuf echoes this view, warning that structural issues—energy costs, insecurity, logistics bottlenecks and weak productivity—continue to undermine recovery.

Meanwhile, the cost of protein remains stubbornly high. Beef, chicken and cooking oil prices have barely declined, ensuring that festive meals remain limited for many families. In cities like Lagos and Abuja, a single person now needs up to ₦400,000 monthly to live modestly.

Nigeria’s Yuletide economy tells a clear story: price relief without income growth offers only temporary comfort. Until policy shifts focus from emergency imports to sustainable production and wage growth, Christmas cheer will remain uneven—and fragile—for ordinary Nigerians.