Nigeria’s Two-Way Oil Surge: Dominance In US Market As Domestic Refineries Turn To American Crude

     

By ESTHER McWILLIS-IKHIDE

Inside Nigeria’s Record Oil Exports to the US — and Why American Crude Is Quietly Powering Nigeria’s Own Refineries

FOR the first eight months of 2025, Nigeria held a position no other African producer came close to matching: it was the single largest supplier of crude oil to the United States. New figures from the US Census Bureau show that between January and August, Nigeria shipped $2.57 billion worth of crude to American refiners — more than half of all African crude that entered the US in that period.

This dual role Nigeria now plays — top exporter to the US while simultaneously doubling crude imports from the same market — reveals a complex, shifting trade relationship shaped by global demand, refinery preferences, and Nigeria’s refining transition.

Nigeria’s Unmatched Lead in the US Market

American refiners took in 33.23 million barrels of Nigerian crude from January to August 2025, representing 54.7% of all African shipments to the US. This means more than one in every two African barrels processed in American refineries came from Nigeria.

The landing value under the CIF metric placed Nigeria far ahead of its regional peers:

• Nigeria: 33.23 million barrels — $2.57 billion

• Libya: 11.51 million barrels — $900.88 million

• Angola: 6.86 million barrels — $534.84 million

• Ghana: 3.69 million barrels — $267.47 million

• Other African suppliers: 5.45 million barrels — $403.44 million

Nigeria’s medium-sweet crude grades remain in high demand because they blend easily and offer refiners better processing options. This versatility has kept Nigeria’s volumes stable even as other African producers saw sharper fluctuations.

August highlighted this trend: Nigeria delivered 4.49 million barrels to the US — slightly above July’s 4.40 million — with the CIF value rising to $353.39 million. The month-to-month increases reinforced its dominance, accounting for 41.5% of all African crude that arrived in US ports that month.

Tariffs Hit Non-Oil Exports, But Crude Still Anchors Bilateral Trade

Despite Nigeria’s strong crude export showing, total US purchases of Nigerian goods fell 14.7% compared to the same period in 2024 — dropping from $4.197 billion to $3.58 billion. The decline is tied to the 15% tariff imposed by President Donald Trump on a wide range of non-oil Nigerian exports.

But crude oil was largely shielded from these tariffs.

As a result, oil dominated the trade balance: $2.568 billion worth of Nigerian crude accounted for 72% of all US imports from Nigeria, leaving only 28% for agriculture, solid minerals, and manufactured products — sectors that absorbed the full shock of the tariff hike.

The figures show that the slump in non-oil exports, rather than any weakness in oil demand, drove the decline in America’s overall purchases from Nigeria.

The Paradox: Nigeria Doubles Its Own Crude Imports from the US

Even as Nigerian crude filled US refineries, the country was rapidly increasing its intake of American crude for domestic use. According to the US Energy Information Administration, Nigeria imported 31.69 million barrels of US crude between February and August 2025 — a 101% surge from the 15.79 million barrels imported over the same period in 2024.

This jump reflects multiple pressures and transitions:

• Domestic supply instability: Production remains below national targets.

• Refinery ramp-ups: The Dangote Refinery and existing plants need consistent feedstock.

• Crude quality compatibility: US light-sweet crude blends well with current refining configurations.

The surge signals that Dangote’s crude intake is gaining momentum, with American barrels emerging as a preferred option during its early operational stages. But it also underscores a longstanding contradiction: Africa’s top oil producer still depends heavily on imported crude to stabilise fuel output.

A New Oil Trade Reality

Nigeria’s 2025 oil trade shows two parallel stories unfolding at once:

1. Abroad, Nigeria is the dominant African supplier to the US — providing more than half of all the continent’s crude entering America.

2. At home, Nigeria increasingly depends on US crude to keep its refineries supplied during a delicate period of industrial transition.

This cross-flow of barrels — Nigerian crude powering American refineries, and American crude powering Nigerian ones — captures the evolving dynamics of global oil markets and the structural challenges Nigeria continues to face.

Despite efforts to diversify, crude oil remains the backbone of Nigeria’s economic engagement with the US. And as both countries adjust to shifting supply chains and new refining realities, the trade in crude — in both directions — is shaping a new era of interdependence.