Nigeria’s Political Map Shifts As Defections Bolster APC
APC Gains Ground with Governor Defections
THE All Progressives Congress (APC) has significantly strengthened its hold on Nigeria’s political landscape following the defection of Taraba State Governor Agbu Kefas, marking the party’s control of 30 out of 36 state governorships. The move, two weeks ago, has generated widespread attention, highlighting the centralisation of power in the ruling party ahead of the 2027 general elections.
Governor Kefas, originally elected under the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP), framed his decision as a strategic alignment with the federal government to accelerate development in Taraba. “My decision is about the future of Taraba State,” he said. “I believe that working closely with the federal government will help us deliver more effectively on our mandate to the people.”
Structural Pressures Driving Defections
Political analysts suggest that these defections reflect deeper systemic realities rather than ideological shifts. Nigeria’s federal system, heavily reliant on central allocations and security coordination, makes it challenging for opposition governors to operate independently. Professor Ayo Olukotun of the University of Ibadan notes, “Governors understand that access to resources and influence flows from the centre, and they adjust their political behaviour accordingly.”
The PDP’s internal crises and the Labour Party’s limited reach have compounded the issue. Many opposition governors reportedly feel isolated, prompting defections to secure political survival, influence local succession, and maintain administrative effectiveness.
APC’s Perspective
Within the APC, the influx of governors is celebrated as validation of the party’s national appeal. National Chairman Professor Nentawe Yilwatda stated, “Governors are joining the APC because they believe in the vision of the party and the leadership of President Bola Tinubu. This is about conviction and the desire to be part of a progressive agenda.”
Senator Ali Ndume added that local dynamics also play a role, asserting that such alignments can improve cooperation between state and federal governments, potentially benefiting citizens.
Implications for 2027 Elections
Control of 30 governorships grants the APC unprecedented electoral machinery, giving the party influence over resources, voter mobilisation, and party structures at the grassroots. Political analysts warn that this dominance could shape perceptions of inevitability, encouraging fence-sitters to align with the ruling party while demoralising the opposition.
Dr. Jibrin Ibrahim of the Centre for Democracy and Development cautioned, “When one party becomes overwhelmingly dominant, accountability suffers, and voters are left with fewer meaningful choices.”
Challenges Within the APC
Despite the gains, managing a party with numerous powerful governors presents internal challenges. Succession battles and primaries are expected to intensify, and former APC National Vice Chairman Salihu Lukman warned that internal discipline and democracy will determine whether the party’s dominance is sustainable.
Looking Ahead
As Nigeria approaches the midpoint of President Tinubu’s tenure, political positioning for 2027 is well underway. The defection of Governor Kefas signals both the gravitational pull of federal power and the urgency among governors to secure influence. How the APC and opposition navigate this period will shape the democratic landscape for years to come.
