Nigeria’s Food System At A Crossroads: 2025 Gains, 2026 Risks

By OBIOMA TORI

2025: A Year of Contradictions in Nigerian Agriculture

NIGERIA’S agricultural and food systems sector in 2025 unfolded as a study in contrasts. On one hand, the year recorded notable increases in yields of key staples such as rice, maize, yam, and cassava. Improved farming practices, favourable rainfall patterns, expanded dry-season farming, and targeted government interventions contributed to stronger output. These gains translated into improved food availability and a measurable decline in staple food prices nationwide.

Yet beneath this positive headline lay mounting pressures. Rising costs of fertilizers, fuel, agrochemicals, and mechanisation services significantly eroded farmer margins. For many producers, higher yields did not translate into higher incomes. Instead, 2025 revealed a paradox of abundance amid financial strain.

Rising Input Costs and Shrinking Margins

Input inflation emerged as one of the defining challenges of the year. Fertiliser prices remained elevated despite government distribution efforts, while fuel costs pushed up expenses across land preparation, irrigation, harvesting, and transportation. Herbicides and improved seeds also became increasingly unaffordable for smallholders.

The federal government’s temporary import-duty exemptions on select food staples contributed to falling market prices. While consumers benefited, farmers faced lower farmgate prices at a time when their production costs were rising. Many responded by scaling back acreage or withdrawing from input-intensive crops such as rice and maize—decisions likely to affect supply stability in 2026.

Production Growth and Market Price Declines

Despite these pressures, production gains were significant. Data from market trackers indicated sharp price corrections across major staples. Locally produced rice declined from peak levels of around ₦90,000 per bag to approximately ₦65,000, while imported parboiled rice fell to roughly ₦62,000.

Prices of maize, beans, and garri followed similar downward trends, easing household food inflation and restoring consumer purchasing power. However, these gains contrasted sharply with official figures showing Nigeria spent ₦3.32 trillion on food imports between January and September 2025, underscoring persistent structural dependence on imports.

Employment, Trade, and Household Welfare

Lower food prices revived small-scale trading and market participation. Many households re-entered foodstuff trading, encouraged by improved affordability and faster turnover. While this supported informal employment, it did little to address the deeper challenges of farm profitability and rural income stability.

Mechanisation and Government Intervention

Government intervention played a central role in output expansion. Programmes such as the 500,000-hectare Dry Season Farming Scheme helped stabilise production. More significantly, the Renewed Hope Agricultural Mechanisation Programme launched in June 2025 marked a major policy shift.

The initiative targets the deployment of 2,000 tractors and over 9,000 specialised implements nationwide, supported by a ₦100 billion allocation through the National Agricultural Development Fund. Leasing models, youth-focused service provision, and partnerships with international and local technical firms aim to address Nigeria’s mechanisation deficit.

Technology Adoption and Extension Gaps

Technology adoption continued unevenly across regions. Precision tools such as drones, mobile advisory platforms, and data analytics improved decision-making for commercial farms, while smallholders benefited modestly from improved extension coverage. However, fragmented access and skills gaps limited broader impact.

Security and Climate Disruptions

Insecurity remained a critical constraint. Renewed attacks in North-Central and Middle Belt states displaced farmers and disrupted planting cycles. Climate shocks added further stress. Flooding in Mokwa, Niger State, destroyed over 25,000 acres of farmland and severed a key transport corridor, exposing the vulnerability of food supply chains.

2026 Outlook: Between Opportunity and Risk

Nigeria enters 2026 at a pivotal moment. Reduced planting in 2025 raises concerns about supply tightness ahead. Experts argue that large-scale input subsidies, mechanisation access, and financing reforms are essential to prevent renewed inflation.

Private-sector participation will be decisive. Equipment financing initiatives, large-scale farm development, and AI-driven advisory platforms promise efficiency gains, but scale and policy consistency remain critical.

Conclusion

Nigeria’s agricultural sector stands at a threshold. The challenge is no longer producing more food, but producing profitably, sustainably, and at scale. Whether 2026 becomes a year of consolidation or renewed crisis will depend on policy discipline, security improvements, and the ability to align farmer welfare with consumer affordability.