Nigeria’s Economy Rebounds, But Poverty Deepens — Quartus Report Warns
By MELVIN KOFFA
A new report by Quartus Economics has revealed that while Nigeria’s economy is showing strong signs of recovery following a decade of turbulence, the battle against poverty remains far from won.
The report, which examined the country’s economic performance from 2014 to 2024, highlighted that Nigeria’s growth trajectory had been severely hampered by poor policy choices, structural inefficiencies, and external shocks before recent reforms began to take effect.
A Decade of Economic Strain
Between 2014 and 2023, Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth slowed dramatically as the economy struggled with a mix of internal and external challenges. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)’s policy of maintaining multiple exchange rates and tight control over foreign currency access discouraged foreign investment and crippled industries dependent on imports.
Compounding these economic headwinds were security challenges — including the Boko Haram insurgency, rampant banditry, and farmer-herder conflicts — which disrupted agriculture and food production. Oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and declining output below OPEC quotas further strained government revenues.
The situation deteriorated sharply in 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic triggered a global oil price crash, plunging Nigeria into a severe recession.
The Reform Era Under Tinubu
By 2023, Nigeria’s fiscal health had reached a breaking point. According to the report, debt servicing alone consumed over 95 percent of federal revenues, while public debt levels became unsustainable.
“The Nigerian economy, by May 2023, was in critical condition,” the report stated. “Investment flows had dried up, and time was running out. The only viable solution was to confront the long-standing distortions draining public finances.”
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration took what Quartus Economics described as “bold but necessary steps” — removing the decades-long fuel subsidy and unifying exchange rates. Though the reforms triggered a sharp rise in inflation and public outcry, the report said they laid the groundwork for long-term recovery.
It added that while the fuel subsidy was officially declared “gone” in May 2023, the phase-out was implemented gradually over 12 to 15 months to cushion the immediate shock.
Recovery and Persistent Poverty
By 2024, the report noted a clear turnaround. Economic activities began to stabilize, production increased, and employment levels improved across key sectors. “After years of economic strain and back-to-back shocks, 2024 marked Nigeria’s quiet return to stable growth,” Quartus observed.
However, the report warned that the benefits of recovery have yet to trickle down to millions of Nigerians, as poverty levels continue to rise due to “deep-rooted structural imbalances.”
“The impact of Nigeria’s economic descent between 2014 and 2023 cannot be ignored,” the report cautioned. “The economy shrank by more than US$200 billion in dollar terms, while the population grew by over 40 million. This created a huge deficit that could take decades to reverse.”
Quartus Economics estimated that over 65 million Nigerians have been pushed below the poverty line in the last decade — a grim reminder that growth alone cannot guarantee inclusive prosperity.
The Road Ahead
The report concluded that Nigeria’s economic recovery, while commendable, remains fragile unless the government addresses systemic issues such as weak governance, infrastructure deficits, and inequality.
It urged sustained investment in education, job creation, and rural development to ensure that the economic rebound translates into real improvements in living standards.
“Reforms have begun to heal the economy’s deep wounds,” the report emphasized. “But for the average Nigerian, the recovery will only be meaningful when prosperity becomes shared, not statistical.”
