Nigeria’s Economic Rebound: Progress Amid Persistent Pain
By DAVID JOHN-FLUKE
NIGERIA’S economy is showing unmistakable signs of revival. Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), and the NNPCL suggest that the worst may be over. Inflation has begun to cool, GDP growth is outpacing forecasts, and foreign reserves are climbing. Yet, for many Nigerians, the recovery still feels distant, as food prices and transport costs remain punishingly high.
Inflation: Numbers vs. Reality
The NBS reports inflation has dropped to 20.3%, its lowest since 2022. But in markets, the story is different: food remains stubbornly expensive. A yam bought for ₦600 in rural Ibadan is resold in Lagos for ₦2,500, not because of scarcity but profiteering. This retail markup, coupled with the stranglehold of the National Union of Road Transport Workers (NURTW), keeps household costs high despite petrol prices falling to ₦865 per litre. If government reins in these distortions, ordinary Nigerians could finally feel the benefits of easing inflation.
Policy Shifts: Small but Symbolic
For the first time in years, the CBN is aligning with inflation trends. By trimming the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) from 27.5% to 27% and cutting banks’ Cash Reserve Ratio from 50% to 45%, the apex bank is freeing funds for private sector lending. While the impact on lending rates near 40% will be minimal in the short term, the signal is clear: rates are on a downward path. This could mark the beginning of cheaper credit, job creation, and a slow easing of poverty pressures.
Oil and Reserves: A Bright Spot
Nigeria’s oil output has climbed back to 1.7 million barrels per day, boosting foreign reserves to $43 billion, their highest since 2019. While still dwarfed by countries like Israel, this milestone offers the CBN much-needed leverage to stabilize the naira and reassure foreign investors about repatriating their earnings. Coupled with rising non-oil exports — cocoa, cashew, aluminum, and fertilisers — Nigeria is beginning to diversify its foreign exchange earnings. Cocoa exports alone surged thanks to record international prices, proving that farmers and manufacturers alike can drive growth if given the right incentives.
Poverty and Policy Gaps
The federal government has disbursed ₦330 billion in stipends to nine million poor families, a lifeline for many living below the poverty line. Yet without addressing systemic inefficiencies in food distribution, transport, and banking, such interventions risk being temporary palliatives rather than lasting solutions.
The Bottom Line
Nigeria’s economy is finally gaining momentum, but the challenge lies in ensuring that the recovery is felt in the markets, kitchens, and wallets of everyday Nigerians. The numbers tell one story, but for now, daily realities still tell another.
