Nigeria Records Sharpest Drop In Oil Losses Since 2009

NIGERIA’S upstream oil industry has achieved a major milestone, with crude oil losses from theft and metering challenges falling to their lowest level in nearly 16 years.

The latest Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) report, tracking crude oil losses up to July 2025, revealed that daily losses averaged just 9,600 barrels per day (bpd)—a figure last seen in 2009, when the country recorded a historic low of 8,500 bpd.

A turnaround in four years

Between January and July 2025, crude losses were contained at 2.04 million barrels, averaging 9,600 bpd. This represents a sharp decline compared to 2024, when losses reached 4.1 million barrels at 11,300 bpd.

The progress is even more striking when compared with 2021, a peak year for losses. At the time, Nigeria lost a staggering 37.6 million barrels, averaging 102,900 bpd—the worst performance in more than two decades. In just four years, losses have fallen by over 94 per cent, underscoring the impact of reforms and security efforts.

The trend shows consistent year-on-year progress:

• 2021: 37.6m barrels lost (102,900 bpd)

• 2022: 20.9m barrels lost (57,200 bpd)

• 2023: 4.3m barrels lost (11,900 bpd)

• 2024: 4.1m barrels lost (11,300 bpd)

• 2025 (Jan–July): 2.04m barrels lost (9,600 bpd)

Strategies driving progress

The NUPRC attributed the achievement to a combined “kinetic and non-kinetic” approach. On the kinetic side, the regulator has worked closely with security agencies, oil operators, and host communities to secure oil infrastructure and combat theft.

On the non-kinetic side, systemic reforms have been introduced, including a comprehensive metering audit across upstream facilities to ensure accurate tracking of crude production and exports.

In addition, the commission, led by Engineer Gbenga Komolafe, recently approved 37 new crude evacuation routes, aimed at closing loopholes exploited by oil thieves.

Looking ahead

The NUPRC noted that the sustained drop in losses aligns with the broader objectives of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021, which mandated tighter oversight of oil operations and stronger collaboration with stakeholders.

Industry watchers say the achievement not only improves revenue inflows for the federal government but also strengthens investor confidence in Nigeria’s oil sector, which has long suffered from chronic leakages and theft.

If the downward trend continues through the remainder of the year, 2025 could mark Nigeria’s most efficient crude loss record in over two decades—a landmark moment for Africa’s largest oil producer.