Is PDP Finally Out Of The Woods?
WITH the zoning of its presidential ticket to the South ahead of the 2027 election and preparation to hold a defining national convention this November, it would seem like the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) is back on track.
But such assumption, according to pundits, would be hasty as the party braces for the fresh intrigues that would shape the outcome of the much-anticipated national convention.
Nevertheless, having meandered through a maze of crises (including battle for national chairmanship seat, national secretary position, post-congresses frictions and more), the party in the last three weeks has been able to convene two National Executive Committee (NEC) meetings, signposting a readiness for change of national leadership in preparation for the 2027 election cycle.
While these actions came at a cost, it’s yet to be seen if the former ruling party has been able to tame the bloated interests within its ranks ahead of the national convention in November.
Post 2023 crises…
Since it lost power at the center in 2015, PDP has been too unstable, failing in two election cycles (2019 and 2023) to make a comeback. Its boast of having a formidable conflict resolution mechanism has not achieved much.
If anything, the former ruling party has managed to survive self-inflicted wounds, hemorrhaging members in large numbers.
By the turn of this year, the party was headed for an implosion following the battle for national secretary position. The tussle had caused split within the National Working Committee (NWC) of the party.
The key actors were the incumbent national secretary, Senator Samuel Anyanwu, and Hon Sunday Ude-Okoye.
Anyanwu enjoyed the backing of the group loyal to FCT minister, Nyesom Wike, while Okoye enjoyed the backing of the South East caucus, the PDP governors and the party’s Board of Trustees (BoT).
The tussle was fierce. Not even a Supreme Court judgement on the matter could resolve it as both camps stuck to their interpretation of the apex court ruling.
At the height of the crisis, three names were mentioned as national secretary: Anyanwu, Udeh-Okoye, and supposed acting Secretary Setonji Koshoedo (as later suggested by the governors).
Meanwhile, the PDP caucus in the Southeast zone threatened to abandon the party if Anyanwu continued as national secretary.
What’s worse, the party could not hold its 99th NEC meeting, which was to set the stage for its National Convention later in the year.
Evidently, a political solution had to be reached and fast. By May, the PDP-GF set up the eight-man National Reconciliation and Strategy Committee led by former Senate President Abubakar Bukola Saraki to reconcile the members.
The mandate by Governor Bala Mohammed-led PDP-GF to the Saraki-led Committee was to resolve the issues, ensure a rancour-free 99th NEC meeting and ultimately the convening of a unifying National Convention.
Other members of the committee were Governors Mbah of Enugu, Dauda Lawal of Zamfara, Caleb Muftwang of Plateau State, Senator Seriake Dickson, Bayelsa West Senatorial District, Senator Ibrahim Dankwanbo, Gombe North Senatorial District, Chief Okezie Ikpeazu, Former Governor of Abia State, and Senator Ibrahim Shekarau, Former Governor of Kano State.
But, shortly after the committee was inaugurated, PDP leaders, including governors of Delta and Akwa Ibom States, Hon Sheriff Oborewori, and Pastor Umo Eno, defected from the party and joined the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
In the federal legislative chambers, no less than 22 lawmakers dumped PDP for the ruling party.
Meanwhile, the crisis over who was national secretary raged which made it difficult to hold the much-anticipated NEC meeting.
Saraki’s committee and 99th NEC meeting intrigues
A source who followed the reconciliation committee closely indicated that different party leaders preferred different solutions to the crisis.
The source said, “Some recommended a hawkish/ hardline approach but the Saraki-led reconciliation committee members believe that all efforts should be made to avoid adopting measures that will break the dry, bent stick holding the party together, in the process of straightening it. The Reconciliation and Strategy Committee from the beginning was able to convince the PDP-GF and the party’s NWC on the need to use a diplomatic approach and persuasive techniques and other soft measures to avert the creation of a chaotic scenario.
“From the beginning, the chairman of the committee, Dr. Abubakar Bukola Saraki, has always maintained that the party should avoid any action or move that will cause anybody to go to court to challenge the party.
“Saraki said a court case will only hold the party down and derail its plan to move forward. Let us not play into the hands of the opponents, he counseled.”
It was gathered that the committee’ recommendation to the party to adopt a “walk on the eggshell strategy” all issues paid off.
In the build-up to the 99th NEC meeting in May, the National Working Committee (NWC) split over whether the meeting should be ascribed as a NEC meeting or not, following the unresolved dispute over who is the national scribe.
In a dramatic twist, the 27 May NEC meeting was held without chaos.
Also, the committee went to work on the South East zone with its leaders who had insisted on leaving the party if Anyanwu continued.
To evade fresh litigation over the matter, the committee initiated the party leaders’ meeting with INEC.
At the meeting which had in attendance, members of the committee, including Governor Mbah, Governor Bala Mohammed of Bauchi State who is chairman of the PDP-GF, and some members of the NWC, it became clear that any official communication to INEC not signed by Anyanwu, for the period he is still the recognised scribe will not be honoured.
Defections to ADC
But, while the reconciliation committee did its work, other aggrieved members of the party left to join the coalition movement under the aegis of the African Democratic Congress (ADC). Leading this group is two-time presidential candidate of the party and former vice president, Atiku Abubakar. For those in this group, the party was beyond redemption. Former Senate President, David Mark, former minister of Police Affairs, Adamu Maina Waziri, among other long time PDP leaders also left to join the ADC which is a gathering of opposition leaders seeking to unseat APC in 2027.
Enter the zoning arrangement and November convention
With the question over the national secretary resolved, the party faced another old thorny issue: zoning of its presidential ticket and other offices.
The party’s mishandling of zoning arrangements has been blamed for its failures in 2015 and 2023 elections. Major Northern PDP leaders, including governors, worked against the party in 2015 over its refusal to zone the ticket to their region in keeping with the power rotation arrangement. The situation was so bad that only one presidential form was printed for then President Goodluck Jonathan, who was said to have agreed ahead of 2011 election to run for one term and hand over to a northerner to complete the tenure of the Northern which was cut short after the death of President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua.
While the party backed the north to get the presidential ticket in 2019, by 2023, PDP leaders from the South, including governors, worked against the party candidate, Atiku Abubakar, who got the ticket. Although they had recognized him as candidate, they however resolved not to support him following the refusal of the then national chairman, Iyorcha Ayu (a Northerner) to resign and allow a Southern emerge party chairman as part of power balancing between the northern and southern regions as was customary in the party.
Weeks before the party’s primary election, Peter Obi, who was the vice-presidential candidate in 2019, dumped the party because it refused to zone the ticket to the South.
In the build up to 2027, the debate on zoning had become contentious.
Checks revealed that on the eve of the last PDP NEC meeting, some members were threatening to hold a rival convention.
Also, after the meeting of the governors in Gusau on 23rd August, the Saturday preceding the 102nd NEC meeting in Abuja, there were speculations that the meeting would see the suspension of some national officers and top members.
However, a source stated that the night before the NEC meeting at the Bauchi Governor’s Lodge in Asokoro, the governors and other party leaders “had a tough discussion on the way forward.’’
The source added, “They all agreed that everybody who has stayed in the party till this moment will lose if they allow a further degeneration or even perpetuation of the crisis.”
It was gathered that the forthcoming National Convention was used as the plank on which the party can begin to rebuild.
“The operative phrases that were preached to all the leaders to embrace are ‘let us give, and take’, ‘let us forgive and forget’, ‘let us move forward’, and ‘we all need to make sacrifices,’” the source said.
It was on this basis, it was also learnt, that Umar Damagum was confirmed as substantive national chairman to serve for the remaining period of his tenure before the convention.
On the back of this arrangement, the 102nd NEC approved the recommendations of the party’s zoning committee led by Governor Douye Diri which allowed all party national offices currently in the North to remain in the North while those in the South to equally remain in the South.
The NEC also approved for the party’s presidential candidate for the 2027 polls to come from the South in compliance with Section 7 subsection 3 (c) and (d) of its constitution “which outlines the party’s commitment to the fair and equitable distribution of resources and the rotation of key political offices to ensure national peace, unity, and power sharing amongst the country’s diverse peoples.”
With this decision, the party aims to woo Jonathan, Obi and many others back to the party to seek the presidential ticket. The coast is also clear for Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo State to throw his hat in the ring.
Is it Uhuru yet?
The PDP’s zoning of its presidential ticket to the South, means the party is ready to split the votes in the South with President Tinubu.
The party would also hope that the zoning would help to ensure its old members return while opening the doors for new members to come in.
Reacting to PDP’s reconciliation efforts and zoning actions, former governor of Nasarawa State, Senator Umaru Tanko Al-Makura, said the party’s recourse to use the southern part of the country as power base ahead of 2027 will be a wasteful venture.
Al-Makura, who contested for the APC national chairmanship position, said that the South belongs to President Bola Tinubu.
“So, the APC and the president cannot be threatened or frightened by the PDP zoning its presidential ticket to the south west. Like someone said earlier, if they like to let them take the ticket beyond the ocean, they can never make any impact there because that zone belongs to Asiwaju,” he stated.
Justifying his position, the former senator representing Nasarawa South, pointed out that the south-south is already in APC’s kitty, and with the south-west being the President’s home-base, PDP may be investing its hope on the south-east, noting that even that will be counterproductive especially with the governors from the zone already romancing with the president.
“The south they are talking about, look at Cross River and Akwa Ibom, both are APC states. What about Edo and of recent, Delta; what do we have to fear? The south-west itself is the president’s home. We are not bothered, we will continue to be focused to ensure that his impact in 2027 will double what it was in 2023.
“If PDP picks someone from the south-west, and I can guess who the person could be, how many states does that person or the PDP have in the south-west, and should the PDP picks someone from the south-east so that it can reduce Asiwaju’s votes in that area, will they be able to also do that in the south-south? They can’t certainly go to all the areas in the south at the same time. And if they will pick someone from the south west it will be an onslaught against them because that is the comfortable zone of Asiwaju. So, I wish them luck, let them dare it and see how much impact we have there.
“About the south-south, it is a no-go area for them because we are already on ground there. In the south-east you must be aware of the Asiwaju’s attraction to the governors there who are in different political parties like APGA PDP and LP, none of them has inhibition about the president’s competence and ability to lead this country,” he explained.
He said it is laughable that a “seriously depleted” party that can hardly provide a united front could threaten a formidable force like the APC and its equally formidable leader in his key stronghold, adding that even outside of power, Tinubu had an easy run in 2023. “It is now that he holds all the aces that he can be threatened?” he queried.
He noted that beyond incumbency factor and overwhelming influence across all geopolitical zones of the country, the tremendous impact of the Tinubu’s administration through far-reaching and pro-people reforms is another selling point for him ahead of the 2027 election.
“And if you look at the stabilization of the foreign exchange and the present visibility across the globe you can know that we are very much comfortable and good to go. For me I think we are very comfortable and we will go all the way to ensure it will be a landslide victory in 2027,” he stated.
On his part, president of Arewa Youths For Sustenance of Democracy and Good Governance, Alhaji Salisu Magaji, said the party is yet to fully address its challenges.
He said, “We expected the NEC to suspend those who have declared support for the APC. They should be disciplined for such anti-party activity.
“Also, there is the concern about the zoning of the presidential ticket to the south. Zoning is not the PDP constitution. We as northerners are against zoning the ticket to the south.
“In 2003, late Abubakar Rimi contested the presidential primaries of PDP with then President Olusegun Obasanjo and his (Rimi) votes were counted so Northerners should be allowed to contest.
“In effect the ticket should be thrown open. We have good candidates that can help the party win. We have former Goodluck Jonathan, former Jigawa Governor Sule Lamido, Bauchi State governor, Bala Mohammed, and Oyo State governor, Seyi Makinde. They can all contest, they are good materials. Zoning the presidential ticket to the south alone will not augur well for the party.
“There is also the concern about where the next national chairman should come from. We want to know. We don’t want to have the status quo to apply. There will be serious sabotage if the current chairman is allowed to continue.
“We think it’s time the party zones the position to North Central or North West. If they say it should remain status quo it means they want to play the card of APC,” he said.
Reacting also, a political analyst and lawyer, Micheal Ibekwe, argued that as much as the party has shown resilience in ensuring that critical stakeholder meetings are held against all odds, it needs to follow through by ensuring that decisions reached are adhered to.
“The party also needs to show it can take decisions and hold on to them. It must be able to establish its supremacy above any and all individuals if it must be taken seriously. Otherwise, many will still see it as not being serious to lead the opposition front. It also has to continue its reconciliation moves to woo back those who left because they were genuinely aggrieved, not those who left because of their ambition. Above all, like I said earlier, the party must demonstrate not just declare that it has turned a new leaf,” he said.
