Governors, Godfathers & The Fight For 2027 Power
By NJORIGE LYNUS
2027 Elections: Succession Wars Intensify as Ten Governors Near Exit
WITH barely a year to Nigeria’s 2027 general elections, political battles are already raging—not at polling units, but within party structures across the country. In at least ten states governed by second-term governors constitutionally barred from re-election, succession politics has triggered intense internal power struggles that threaten party unity and electoral stability.
Across geopolitical zones, outgoing governors are seeking to install loyal successors, while rival aspirants, backed by aggrieved stakeholders and grassroots structures, are mobilising to resist what they describe as imposed candidates. The result is a volatile mix of godfatherism, internal rebellion and shifting alliances that may ultimately shape electoral outcomes in 2027.
Lagos: Establishment Power Versus Emerging Forces
In Lagos State, Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu’s impending exit has refocused attention on who inherits control within the state’s powerful All Progressives Congress (APC) machinery. The contest is less about party change and more about influence within an entrenched political establishment.
Several factions are quietly positioning aspirants believed to enjoy the backing of dominant party leaders, while others—particularly younger politicians and technocrats—are calling for a generational shift. Names circulating in political circles include Seyi Tinubu, Femi Gbajabiamila, Mudashiru Obasa and former governor Akinwumi Ambode. While the battle lines remain subtle, loyalty to established structures is already clashing with growing demands for internal reform.
Oyo: Makinde’s Authority Tested
In Oyo State, Governor Seyi Makinde remains the undisputed leader of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), but internal dissent is growing. Although Makinde is widely expected to anoint a successor, party leaders and aspirants fear that imposition could trigger internal revolt.
Former deputy governor Hazeem Gbolarunmi has openly declared his ambition, claiming widespread grassroots support across the state’s 33 local governments. Another PDP aspirant, Ambassador Olufemi Ajadi Oguntoyinbo, is also actively campaigning. Makinde previously hinted that his preferred candidate would be revealed by January 2026, heightening political tension.
The opposition APC, weakened in recent elections, is closely monitoring the situation, hoping to exploit any fracture within the PDP.
Kwara: Zoning Agitation Threatens APC Unity
In Kwara State, Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq’s exit could reopen political wounds previously healed by the APC’s “Otoge” revolution that dismantled the Saraki dynasty. Today, rival blocs within the ruling party are competing for control.
A major agitation is emerging from Kwara North, which has not produced a governor since 1999. While Speaker of the House of Assembly Salihu Danladi is believed to be the governor’s preferred successor, zoning sentiments could complicate such plans. Meanwhile, former Senate President Bukola Saraki is reorganising the PDP to capitalise on APC divisions.
Imo: APC Fractures Deepen
In Imo State, Governor Hope Uzodinma is walking a tightrope. Despite consolidating power within the APC, resentment persists among sidelined stakeholders. Aspirants from Okigwe, Owerri and Orlu zones are locked in quiet rivalry, fuelling fears of internal implosion.
These divisions are strengthening opposition figures, including former governor Emeka Ihedioha of the PDP and Labour Party’s Athan Achonu, raising concerns that APC disunity could cost the party the state.
Northern States: PDP and APC Under Pressure
In Bauchi, Governor Bala Mohammed’s departure has created a PDP power vacuum. Senator Ahmed Abdul Ningi has declared his ambition, while the APC is actively courting dissatisfied party members.
In Adamawa, Governor Ahmadu Fintiri’s influence is being challenged by senators and former governors, weakening his grip on succession planning. Gombe and Nasarawa are witnessing similar turbulence, with multiple aspirants jostling for APC tickets amid fears of parallel primaries.
In Nasarawa alone, over 35 aspirants have emerged, more than half from the APC, highlighting the intensity of the contest.
Borno and Yobe: Stability Takes Priority
Borno Governor Babagana Zulum has publicly distanced himself from succession politics, insisting on fairness and transparency. However, federal influence and security concerns continue to shape behind-the-scenes calculations.
In Yobe, succession discussions remain discreet but active, with zoning and security considerations guiding elite negotiations.
Godfatherism and Democratic Risks
Political analysts warn that succession battles often degenerate into “do-or-die” contests. Douglas Paul of Nnamdi Azikiwe University argues that outgoing governors frequently seek loyal successors to protect their interests, undermining democracy.
Former Sports Minister Solomon Dalung echoed this concern, alleging that succession politics is driven by godfatherism and self-preservation. However, others argue that controlled succession ensures continuity of governance.
As 2027 approaches, one thing is clear: many of the fiercest electoral battles will be decided long before Nigerians cast their ballots.
