Global Price Shocks Drive Nigeria’s Soaring Wheat Imports
Imports Surge as Demand Outpaces Supply
NIGERIA’S reliance on imported wheat has deepened, with shipments from Russia rising sharply in early 2026. Data shows that direct wheat imports from Russia’s Port of Vysotsk increased by 64 per cent within the first eight weeks of the year, reaching 131,000 tonnes valued at $30.3 million.
This marks a significant jump from the 47,900 tonnes recorded during the same period in 2025, underscoring a widening supply gap in Nigeria’s domestic wheat production.
Price Volatility and Global Pressures
The surge in imports comes amid heightened volatility in global grain markets. While Russia initially offered competitive export prices between $229 and $231 per tonne, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and supply disruptions have driven prices up sharply to about $612 per tonne as of mid-March 2026.
This represents a dramatic spike within a short period, raising concerns over the sustainability of import costs for Nigerian millers and food processors. Russia’s export quota of 20 million tonnes for the February–June 2026 season has also intensified competition among buyers.
Heavy Activity at Nigerian Ports
Shipping data from the Nigerian Ports Authority indicates a steady influx of wheat shipments across major ports. Vessels such as Navios Celestial are expected to discharge over 54,000 tonnes at Apapa Bulk Terminal Limited (ABTL), while other ships have already delivered significant volumes.
In January alone, seven vessels brought in more than 224,000 tonnes of wheat across Lagos, Tin Can Island, and Calabar ports, reflecting the scale of Nigeria’s import dependence.
Domestic Production Still Limited
Despite ongoing government efforts to boost local production, Nigeria’s wheat output remains relatively low. Estimates suggest domestic farmers will produce between 140,000 and 400,000 tonnes in the 2026–2027 season, far below projected national demand.
Even with a planned 7 per cent increase in output, local wheat is largely low in protein content, making it more suitable for blending rather than large-scale flour milling.
To address this gap, the Federal Government has expanded wheat farming initiatives, targeting 80,000 farmers across 16 states. However, industry experts say these efforts may take time to significantly reduce import dependence.
Import Dependence Set to Continue
According to projections, Nigeria’s wheat imports could hit a record 7.2 million tonnes in the 2026–2027 marketing year, driven by rising demand from bakeries and food processors, particularly in urban areas.
The United States and Poland are also expected to remain key suppliers, but Russia’s competitive pricing strategy has strengthened its position in the Nigerian market.
Analysts warn that unless structural challenges—such as high production costs, insecurity, and low yields—are addressed, Nigeria’s dependence on imported wheat will continue to grow.
For now, the surge in imports reflects a broader reality: domestic production is struggling to keep pace with consumption in one of Africa’s largest food markets.
