Dangote Refinery Powers Nigeria Through Festive Fuel Surge
By ESTHER McWILLIS-IKHIDE
Petrol Consumption Jumps Sharply as Festive Demand Peaks
NIGERIA’S daily petrol consumption surged to 63.7 million litres in December 2025, representing a sharp increase of 10.8 million litres per day from November levels, according to data released by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).
The figure, contained in the regulator’s December 2025 State of the Midstream and Downstream Fact Sheet, reflects volumes trucked into the domestic market and exceeds the government’s 2025 benchmark of 50 million litres per day by 27 per cent.
Dangote Refinery Anchors Supply Stability
NMDPRA attributed the ability to meet this spike in demand largely to improved domestic refinery output, led by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery. The refinery increased petrol production from 19.5 million litres per day in November to 32 million litres per day in December, operating at an average capacity utilisation of 64.02 per cent, with peak utilisation reaching 71 per cent.
The regulator said the refinery’s performance was critical in stabilising supply during the high-demand yuletide season, when transport activity, household consumption, and industrial operations typically rise.
Dangote Refinery also supplied an average of 5.783 million litres of Automotive Gas Oil (diesel) daily during the period.
Imports Decline Despite Rising Demand
While consumption rose, petrol imports declined significantly. Average daily imports dropped to 42.2 million litres, down from 52.1 million litres per day in November, reflecting the growing contribution of domestic refineries.
Overall, domestic refineries supplied 32.0 million litres per day, comprising volumes trucked from refineries and received into coastal depots.
However, the data has reignited concerns over Nigeria’s earlier proposal to impose a 15 per cent import duty on petrol and diesel, a policy that was eventually shelved in November after widespread criticism.
State-Owned Refineries Still Offline
Despite improved domestic output, Nigeria’s state-owned refineries remain largely inactive. The Port Harcourt Refinery recorded no new production, remaining in shutdown mode, although evacuation of previously produced diesel averaged 0.247 million litres per day.
Both the Warri and Kaduna refineries also remained shut throughout the period.
Stock Levels Improve Across Products
The NMDPRA reported improved fuel sufficiency nationwide. Petrol stocks rose to 29 days, a 77 per cent improvement from November’s 16.5 days. Diesel stocks stood at 25 days, aviation fuel at 20 days, LPG at 8 days, and Low Pour Fuel Oil at 51 days.
Notably, PMS sufficiency figures excluded Dangote refinery stocks reserved for domestic consumption, indicating even stronger buffers.
Prices and Market Pressures
Based on Brent crude at $62.68 per barrel, NMDPRA estimated PMS prices ranging from ₦832.31 per litre in Lagos to ₦900.49 in Maiduguri. Actual market prices were higher, averaging ₦861 in Lagos and ₦952.50 in Abuja, with peak prices reaching ₦975 per litre.
