Dangote, NNPCL Listings Poised To Turbocharge Nigeria’s Trillion-Dollar Ambition

NIGERIA’S capital market is bracing for one of its most significant turning points in decades as momentum grows toward the anticipated 2026 listings of Dangote Refinery and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX). Analysts say the dual public offerings could radically expand the exchange, attract historic levels of liquidity, and accelerate President Bola Tinubu’s push for a $1 trillion economy.

The optimism intensified after economist Bismarck Rewane projected that the two national giants may join the NGX as early as next year. With Dangote Refinery valued at about $32 billion and NNPCL estimated between $30 billion and $60 billion, experts argue that their combined market presence would substantially transform the size and structure of Nigeria’s capital market.

Rewane notes that the listings could potentially grow the NGX from about 20 percent of GDP to nearly 80 percent in the medium term—an unprecedented leap in market depth and investment capacity. A partial float of Dangote Refinery alone could inject billions of dollars into the exchange, while an NNPCL listing would offer Nigerians their first opportunity to hold shares in the country’s most strategic oil and gas assets.

Market analysts say the scale mirrors the economic impact of Saudi Aramco’s 2019 IPO and could reset global investor sentiment toward Nigeria. Large foreign funds, which exited due to FX restrictions and liquidity challenges, are expected to return if these internationally recognised companies become tradable.

The listings align closely with the Tinubu administration’s reforms aimed at unlocking private capital, boosting industrial output, and diversifying foreign exchange earnings. Dangote Refinery’s operations are already expected to reduce fuel import dependence, while NNPCL has been moving toward greater transparency through the publication of audited accounts.

Economists argue that the expansion of the capital market will be essential to financing Nigeria’s major infrastructure and industrial projects. A deeper exchange would spur job creation, widen tax revenues, strengthen external accounts, and allow institutional investors to rebalance toward energy and manufacturing—shifting Nigeria’s market away from its long-standing banking dominance.

Despite the excitement, experts warn of crucial hurdles. NNPCL must resolve legacy liabilities, improve corporate governance, and ensure transparent financial reporting. Dangote Refinery must demonstrate consistent output and stable cash flows before going public. Broader concerns such as exchange rate volatility and inflation also pose timing risks.

Still, analysts view 2026 as achievable, particularly with ongoing FX reforms, banking recapitalisation, and increasing investor appetite. If both listings materialise, the NGX could surpass N100 trillion in market capitalisation, potentially becoming one of Africa’s most liquid exchanges and significantly strengthening Nigeria’s regional market influence.

Beyond market metrics, the listings represent a chance to democratise economic participation. For the first time, ordinary Nigerians would have the opportunity to own a stake in NNPCL’s oil wealth, while institutional investors gain access to large-scale, globally relevant assets.

Ultimately, the proposed Dangote Refinery and NNPCL offerings signal more than an influx of capital—they mark a structural shift that could redefine Nigeria’s investment landscape and position the NGX at the centre of the country’s trillion-dollar economic drive.