Coups Without End: Inside The Governance Failures Fueling West Africa’s Military Resurgence

By TIMOTHY HAGGERTY-NWOKOLO

THE attempted coup in Benin Republic on Sunday has once again thrown a harsh spotlight on a region increasingly defined by democratic fragility. Though swiftly foiled, the episode—complete with gunfire in Cotonou, a brief takeover of state television, and rapid military pushback—reveals a deepening pattern: West Africa is experiencing its most aggressive wave of coups and coup attempts in decades.

Investigations by political analysts, diplomats and civil society groups point to a combustible mix at the heart of the crisis: democratic decay, leadership overstaying their welcome, collapsing electoral legitimacy, and worsening insecurity. The Benin incident, coming just weeks after the turmoil in Guinea-Bissau, underscores how pervasive the trend has become.

A Coup Thwarted—But Not Without Alarms

Benin was thrown into uncertainty when soldiers identifying as the “Military Committee for Refoundation” announced the ouster of President Patrice Talon. In reality, security sources revealed, the plotter group was small and quickly neutralized. Around a dozen soldiers have been detained, with authorities describing the incident as a “mutiny” aimed at destabilizing the state.

But the episode quickly expanded into a regional matter after details emerged that the Nigerian Air Force conducted operations under ECOWAS protocols, reportedly launching airstrikes on the Togbin military base to help restore order. President Bola Tinubu praised the intervention—another sign of Nigeria’s central role in maintaining regional democratic stability.

International reactions were swift. ECOWAS condemned the act as a “subversion of the will of the Beninese people,” while the African Union demanded a return to barracks. Foreign missions in Cotonou urged their nationals to stay indoors.

Why Coups Are Spreading—Experts Trace the Roots

Across interviews with career diplomats, academics, and civil society leaders, a consistent pattern emerges: coups are symptoms of deeper governance failures.

Ambassador Suleiman Dahiru, a veteran envoy, argues that West Africa’s institutions are too weak to withstand political manipulation.

“Democracy has not taken root,” he says. “Leaders mismanage resources, manipulate elections and refuse to step down. The people lose trust, and the military exploits that loss.”

For Dahiru, fraudulent elections are a major trigger. “When ballots no longer change governments, guns become the alternative,” he warns.

The contagion effect—where one coup inspires another—is also becoming unmistakable. Dr. Sa’idu Ahmad Dukawa of Bayero University describes it as “a domino of desperation.”

“When one country succeeds, another tries. It spreads like fire.”

Civil society leaders echo these concerns. Yunusa Ya’u of the Situation Room says years of unaccountable leadership have left citizens disillusioned.

“When governments fail repeatedly, people—especially young people who never experienced military rule—begin to romanticize coups,” he notes.

ECOWAS at a Breaking Point

The regional bloc, once considered Africa’s strongest democratic enforcer, is now struggling to contain the cascade. At least four member states—Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea and Niger—are already under military rule. Three have withdrawn from ECOWAS entirely.

Ambassador M. K. Ibrahim describes the situation as “the gravest threat to ECOWAS since its creation.”

“Since 1975, no period has been as destabilizing. If Benin had fallen, we would be counting five military regimes.”

He insists that Nigeria must lead the defense of constitutional order despite its domestic challenges:
“If ECOWAS collapses, the individual states cannot survive alone.”

Yet even he admits that ECOWAS’ strict anti-coup protocols are now under scrutiny. Some argue that the bloc’s zero-tolerance stance has not stopped coups, while other African regions prefer dialogue-driven approaches. Still, Ibrahim maintains that abandoning democratic standards would destroy the bloc’s credibility.

A Region in Democratic Free Fall

Recent coups have exposed a web of systemic problems:

• Mali: Security collapse and public anger over terrorism.

• Burkina Faso: Successive juntas unable to contain insurgency.

• Niger: A coup despite record development gains.

• Guinea: A third-term bid sparking popular outrage.

• Guinea-Bissau: A contested election igniting military takeover.

Each case reflects a failure of governance—either through corruption, insecurity, constitutional manipulation, or loss of electoral credibility.

The Road Back: Experts Warn Time Is Running Out

Analysts insist that coups will continue unless elected governments deliver tangible results.

Dr. Dukawa describes good governance as the only antidote—“invest in people, create jobs, improve education and healthcare, reduce corruption.”

“If the state works, the gun becomes irrelevant.”

The African Democratic Congress (ADC) adds that democracy must mean something to citizens: “If leaders rig themselves into power and deny citizens economic dignity, military alternatives begin to look attractive to frustrated populations.”

As West Africa grapples with political uncertainty, the Benin incident serves as both warning and probability: unless governance improves, the region may witness an even more dangerous expansion of constitutional breakdowns.