CAR’s Fragile Gains: Is Touadéra Mistaking Foreign Support for Stability?

THE Central African Republic (CAR) is entering a decisive period ahead of its December 2025 general elections, with President Faustin-Archange Touadéra seemingly in a position of strength. Yet beneath the veneer of stability lies a troubling question: has the country’s reliance on foreign support created a false sense of security?

Since his controversial re-election in 2021, Touadéra has recorded significant diplomatic and military gains. In 2024, the United Nations Security Council lifted its arms embargo on the Central African Armed Forces (FACA), while the Kimberley Process reinstated CAR’s diamond exports after years of suspension. In regional politics, the president’s stature rose further in 2023 when he was named facilitator for the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) in Gabon’s political crisis.

On the battlefield, Touadéra’s forces—bolstered by Russian Wagner mercenaries and Rwandan troops—pushed François Bozizé’s Coalition of Patriots for Change (CPC) rebels to the country’s peripheries after their failed 2021 coup attempt. This improved security situation has raised hopes that the December polls could consolidate peace.

But the underlying challenges are daunting.

Governance and Marginalisation
Despite security gains, the CAR government continues to neglect basic needs in vast swathes of the country, particularly the northeast prefectures of Vakaga and Bamingui-Bangoran, where feelings of marginalisation have long fueled rebellion. Critics accuse Bangui of concentrating resources in the capital and western regions, leaving rural communities in despair.

Corruption and economic mismanagement further complicate the situation. Civil society groups have repeatedly condemned the administration’s handling of the mining and fuel sectors, saying revenues are siphoned off by a small ruling elite rather than invested in national development.

Political Uncertainty
Political stability is also on shaky ground. The July 2023 constitutional amendment cleared the way for Touadéra to seek a third term, deepening concerns about authoritarian drift. Opposition parties have rejected the move, vowing to boycott the elections and branding state institutions—the National Elections Authority and Constitutional Council—as compromised.

In April, over 1,000 demonstrators staged a protest in Bangui against Touadéra’s third-term bid, highlighting worsening socio-economic conditions. Responding to mounting pressure, the president initiated a political dialogue on September 2, but its outcomes remain uncertain.

Analysts warn that political exclusion could once again push disillusioned actors toward rebellion. In 2020, Bozizé himself reignited armed conflict after being barred from contesting the polls.

Resilient Armed Groups
Despite setbacks, insurgent groups remain active. Although a July 2024 deal with two CPC factions weakened the rebellion, fighters have not abandoned CAR territory. Many are now active in neighbouring Sudan’s civil war, where shifting alliances could easily draw them back into CAR’s conflict.

Tensions between Bangui and Sudanese General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan—amid rumours of a CAR-based Emirati supply route to Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces—risk further destabilising the region.

Meanwhile, problems within the army persist. Disorganised recruitment and poor training, including the integration of ex-rebels, have created what observers call a “militianised” army. Troop numbers are swelling without adequate logistical and salary support, fueling discontent in the ranks.

Dependence on Foreign Partners
CAR’s reliance on external partners is both its strength and its Achilles’ heel. Russian and Rwandan forces provide vital security, while Western partners like the European Union and United States, despite past friction over Wagner’s presence, have resumed financial support. Regionally, relations with Chad have thawed, while ties with Rwanda have grown closer.

But this delicate balance is precarious. Shifts in the global or regional geopolitical landscape could quickly unravel CAR’s stability. Past leaders, such as Bozizé, learned the hard way in 2013 when South African soldiers failed to shield him from the Seleka advance.

The Road Ahead
Experts stress that lasting peace will require more than foreign protection. The government must address deep-rooted grievances by ensuring equitable distribution of resources, investing in neglected regions, and restoring public trust through credible governance.

In the short term, meaningful engagement with the opposition and improved relations with neighbouring Sudan are essential to avert another cycle of violence. In the long term, Touadéra’s legacy will be judged not by military victories won with foreign backing, but by whether he can transform fleeting security gains into genuine national stability.