Africa Risks Becoming A Battleground For External Rivalries Instead Of Shaping Its Own Foreign Policy
FOREIGN policy once carried a certain mystique: long-term strategies, carefully negotiated alliances, and doctrines that shaped international order for decades. It was statecraft rooted in principles, predictability, and the projection of national interest. Today, that world feels like a relic. In its place is a chaotic landscape where diplomacy often takes a back seat to brute self-interest and instant reactions.
From Strategy to Short-Termism
Where strategies like the Cold War’s containment or Africa’s non-alignment once stretched over generations, foreign policy today often unfolds in real time. A single tweet can spark a trade war. Sanctions can be imposed overnight. Elections can flip alliances.
The United States illustrates this shift vividly. Once the architect of liberal internationalism, it now oscillates between global leadership and retreat, leaving allies uncertain about its commitments. Britain’s Brexit similarly reshaped its foreign policy identity without a clear long-term vision. Across the globe, aid flows are declining, and traditional alliances are increasingly fragile.
Multilateral institutions, once the backbone of diplomacy, now often resemble talk shops rather than decision-making bodies. The UN Security Council, WTO, and even regional blocs like ECOWAS and ASEAN struggle to deliver decisive action.
The Ukraine Effect and the Return of Realpolitik
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shattered the post-Cold War assumption that territorial conquest was a relic of the past. Western nations responded with sanctions and arms supplies, rediscovering old realpolitik tools. Yet the Global South’s reluctance to take sides revealed the limits of Western influence. India bought discounted Russian oil while courting U.S. security ties; Africa received competing visits from Moscow and Washington.
This “Ukraine effect” has normalized a foreign policy that is reactive, militarized, and transactional. Diplomacy is no longer the first tool of engagement, but an afterthought.
The Middle East paints a similar picture. U.S. influence as guarantor of security is fading, while regional powers — Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, even non-state actors — increasingly shape events. China now plays mediator, as seen in the Saudi-Iran détente, while Russia remains disruptive in Syria. Deals are struck, broken, and remade, blurring the line between diplomacy and warfare.
Africa: Between Opportunity and Exploitation
For Africa, this fluid world has two faces. On the one hand, the decline of rigid Cold War blocs has created room to diversify partnerships. China builds infrastructure, Russia supplies arms, the West emphasizes governance reforms, while Turkey and Gulf states invest in trade and faith diplomacy.
On the other hand, the continent risks becoming a chessboard for foreign powers chasing resources and influence. Recent coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have drawn rival overtures from Moscow and Paris, while ECOWAS remains divided. Too often, Africa is treated as a marketplace where the best offer wins, rather than as a driver of its own foreign relations.
New Arenas of Rivalry
Foreign policy battles are no longer fought only on borders. Technology, trade, and climate now define the new frontiers of power. The U.S.-China rivalry over semiconductors, 5G, and artificial intelligence is as consequential as any territorial dispute.
Economic tools have become weapons: supply chain disruptions, export bans, and carbon border taxes turn markets into instruments of coercion. Even climate finance and Africa’s mineral wealth for clean energy are now bargaining chips in global power plays.
Meanwhile, multilateral bodies struggle for relevance. The UN falters in Sudan and Myanmar; the AU lacks enforcement power; the WHO was caught in geopolitical crossfire during COVID-19. Ad hoc clubs like BRICS, G20, Quad, and AUKUS fill the gap but often serve narrow interests rather than global ones.
The Erosion of Principles
Human rights, once central to foreign policy rhetoric, now appear selective. Sanctions are imposed on some autocrats but ignored for others. Arms flow freely to allies regardless of repression at home. In the age of social media, publics can see these contradictions clearly, further eroding trust in diplomacy.
Can Foreign Policy Be Reclaimed?
Foreign policy is not dead, but it is diminished. What we are witnessing may be less its demise than its transformation. Just as the Cold War and decolonization reshaped the 20th century order, today’s upheavals may be birthing a more multipolar, transactional world.
For Africa and the wider Global South, the challenge is clear: reclaim agency. Rather than serving as an arena for external rivalries, the continent must set its own diplomatic priorities, strengthen regional institutions, and engage partners on its own terms.
Reviving meaningful diplomacy requires consistency, investment in statecraft, and alliances rooted in transparency and mutual benefit.
We live in a transitional age — too interconnected for isolationism, too fragmented for a cooperative global order. The task ahead is to ensure diplomacy regains its place as the first resort of statecraft, not the last.
