AFCON 2025: Rankings vs Realities In Group Exits
By FRED LONGJOHN OBEH
Rankings, Realities and African Football’s Competitive Depth
THE conclusion of AFCON 2025’s group stage in Morocco has provided a critical lens into the competitive depth and unpredictability of African football. Eight teams have already seen their campaigns end, some through expected struggles, others through narrow misses that demonstrate how crowded the middle of continental football has become.
Botswana set the tone for elimination when early defeats left them unable to keep pace with group rivals, an outcome reflected in their FIFA ranking of 138. In contrast, squads like Equatorial Guinea (97) and Gabon (78), with higher ranking pedigrees, succumbed to tactical and structural hurdles, finishing fourth in Groups E and F, respectively. Their exits underline that ranking advantage does not guarantee progression, especially when squad cohesion and adaptability are tested.
Zimbabwe (129) and Zambia (91) also failed to mount serious qualification challenges, each finishing at the bottom of their groups after falling short in key moments. Uganda (85), despite a rich history in AFCON competition, could not engineer a consistent campaign, failing to capitalise on critical late-game opportunities.
Third-place qualification proved a double-edged sword. While Mozambique, Benin, Sudan, and Tanzania advanced by virtue of higher point totals and better group metrics, Comoros (109) and Angola (89) were edged out. Angola’s tally of two points from three matches was particularly costly in a tightly balanced Group B, highlighting how draws without wins offer little buffer in this format.
This year’s eliminations reflect both the parity and volatility in African football. Teams once considered minnows are pushing established sides, tactical innovation is widespread, and margins for error are wafer-thin. As the tournament advances into the knockout phase, the surviving 16 teams will confront not only their opponents but also the psychological weight of stronger, unpredictable competition that has now become the norm at AFCON.
