North Central At A Crossroads Of Promise
THE North Central region of Nigeria has long been described as the country’s “bridge” – geographically connecting North and South, culturally diverse, and resource-rich. Plateau, Nasarawa, Kwara, Benue, Niger, and Kogi form a belt of potential that could, in theory, be the nation’s agricultural and industrial heartbeat. Yet the 2025 Phillips Consulting State Performance Index (pSPI) paints a picture of uneven progress, striking contrasts, and a region still struggling to translate promise into consistent delivery.
The North Central’s paradox is not unlike that of the Austro-Hungarian Empire in the late 19th century – a mosaic of peoples, climates, and resources, but hampered by fragmented governance, uneven development, and the inability to forge a shared economic vision. While parts of the region excel in governance metrics, others languish near the bottom, their vast potential dulled by policy inertia, insecurity, and structural inefficiencies.
Niger and Nasarawa: The Unexpected Pacesetters
In a region where public discourse often revolves around unfulfilled potential, Niger and Nasarawa stand out as pacesetters. Niger, ranking 5th nationally, has managed to leverage its agricultural capacity and energy resources more effectively than many might have predicted. Its commitment to infrastructure, especially in connecting rural agricultural zones to markets, has echoes of the Tennessee Valley Authority in Depression-era America – a deliberate state-driven push to modernise a neglected hinterland.
Nasarawa’s 6th-place ranking is equally notable. Known more for its mineral deposits and proximity to the Federal Capital Territory than for policy innovation, the state has invested in improving fiscal discipline, streamlining service delivery, and pursuing targeted infrastructure that supports both urban growth and rural livelihoods. This is a reminder that location can be either a curse or a blessing, depending on leadership vision. Nasarawa appears, for now, to be choosing the latter.
Yet both states face a familiar challenge – sustaining momentum. The history of development is littered with bright starts that faded into mediocrity once political cycles shifted. Without institutionalising reforms, Niger and Nasarawa could go the way of Portugal after its Age of Exploration – rich in early gains, but unable to maintain competitive advantage when new challenges arose.
Plateau: A High Performer with Fragile Foundations
Plateau’s 9th-place ranking confirms it as one of the better-governed states in the country, but its story is complex. On the surface, there is visible progress in urban infrastructure, some improvement in health and education outcomes, and relative fiscal stability. However, the undercurrents of ethno-religious tension and periodic violence continue to undermine the state’s ability to fully harness its tourism potential, agricultural wealth, and mineral resources.
It is a contradiction reminiscent of Lebanon in the 1960s – the so-called “Paris of the Middle East” – where economic vibrancy coexisted uneasily with deep-seated sectarian fractures. Plateau’s gains could be reversed if it fails to address the social cohesion problem. Development thrives in stability, and stability requires more than periodic peace accords; it requires deliberate, inclusive governance that earns trust across divides.
Kwara and Benue: Stuck in the Middle
Kwara’s 18th-place finish situates it firmly in the national middle tier. Historically positioned as a trading and agricultural hub, Kwara has failed to leverage its proximity to Lagos and Abuja into a competitive edge. The state has pockets of competent governance, but the absence of a bold, unifying economic vision leaves it adrift. Like the Italian states of the early 15th century – rich in local culture but lacking the unity to resist larger, more coordinated powers – Kwara risks being overshadowed by better-organised neighbours.
Benue, at 23rd, is a more troubling case. As Nigeria’s “food basket,” it should be leading agricultural innovation. Instead, it remains hamstrung by insecurity, weak infrastructure, and a governance model too reactive to crises and too cautious to innovate. The irony is painful: a state with fertile land and abundant water resources is underperforming at feeding itself, let alone driving regional food security. Benue’s situation is akin to Egypt in the later Ottoman period – blessed by the Nile’s fertility, yet diminished by administrative stagnation and external pressures.
Kogi: A Warning from the Bottom
Kogi’s 35th-place ranking is a red flag, not just for the state but for the region. Geographically central, sitting astride the confluence of the Niger and Benue rivers, it has enviable locational advantages. In another context, such positioning could have mirrored the rise of Chicago in 19th-century America – a transport and commercial hub that became the heart of a continental economy. Instead, Kogi has become a cautionary tale of misaligned priorities, fiscal mismanagement, and squandered geography.
Its low performance across multiple pSPI metrics from citizen perception to service delivery, speaks to a leadership culture that confuses resource control with developmental outcomes. Without a dramatic reorientation toward basic governance fundamentals, Kogi risks cementing itself as a symbol of wasted potential.
Bridging the Region’s Divide
The North Central’s mixed performance underscores a deeper truth: geography and resources are not destiny. What separates the high performers from the laggards is not luck but a combination of leadership quality, strategic thinking, and institutional discipline. Where governance has been deliberate, outcomes have improved. Where it has been reactive, outcomes have stagnated or worsened.
The pSPI’s inclusion of citizen perception is especially revealing here. It reminds us that governance is not just about ticking boxes on project completion; it is about how people experience the state in their daily lives. A clinic built without medicines, a school opened without teachers, a road completed without maintenance – these are not successes in the eyes of citizens. Low perception scores across much of the region reflect this gap between headline achievements and lived reality.
Historically, regions that overcame such divides invested heavily in institutional cooperation. The post-war European Recovery Program – the Marshall Plan – succeeded not only because of funds, but because of shared frameworks that locked countries into mutually reinforcing reforms. The North Central, by contrast, remains a patchwork of isolated efforts. The absence of a coordinated economic strategy across the six states means opportunities for shared agricultural processing hubs, integrated transport networks, and joint energy projects go unrealised.
Security, too, must be addressed as a regional issue. Banditry in Benue spills into Nasarawa; instability in Kogi can ripple into Niger. Just as the Swiss cantons in the 19th century realised that mutual defence and economic integration were inseparable, the North Central must recognise that its security and prosperity are intertwined.
The pSPI is not a prophecy; it is a mirror. For Niger, Nasarawa, and Plateau, it reflects progress but warns against complacency. For Kwara and Benue, it highlights the cost of drifting without bold vision. For Kogi, it is an urgent alarm. The region stands at a crossroads – it can either harness its diversity and geography into a coherent strategy for inclusive growth, or it can continue as a collection of states occasionally blessed with good years but structurally unprepared for long-term transformation.
In history, crossroads moments are rarely obvious to those living through them. Yet when future analysts look back at the North Central in 2025, the pSPI may well be seen as the moment when the choices became stark and the excuses ran out. Whether its leaders will seize that moment remains to be seen.
(Leadership News)
