Nigeria’s 2027 Governorship Race: Ten States, Ten Departing Governors & A New Political Power Struggle
By NJORIGE LYNUS
Nigeria’s 2027 Governorship Battles: How Ten States Are Navigating Succession, Party Realignments & Power Rotation
THE 2027 governorship elections will mark a defining moment in the political development of ten Nigerian states as their incumbent governors prepare to leave office after completing two constitutionally permitted terms. From Lagos and Ogun in the South-West to Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe and Yobe in the North-East, the impending transitions have opened fresh contests over political leadership, party control and the distribution of power.
The outgoing governors — Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri, Bala Mohammed, Babagana Zulum, Muhammadu Inuwa Yahaya, AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, Abdullahi Sule, Dapo Abiodun, Seyi Makinde and Mai Mala Buni — all assumed office in 2019 and secured re-election in 2023. Their second terms will end in May 2027.
However, the political significance of their departures goes beyond the constitutional restriction on seeking another term. Each state must now navigate the question of succession, while political parties and influential stakeholders seek to shape the next phase of governance.
INEC’s final list of governorship candidates has formalised the field for the February 6, 2027 elections. Yet, the number of candidates alone does not explain the complexity of the contests. Party defections, internal disputes, zoning arrangements, regional aspirations and the influence of outgoing governors have all become part of the political calculations.
The end of incumbency & the beginning of succession politics
The transition will occur across states with different political histories and party structures. Although the APC controls several of the affected administrations, the political landscape has changed considerably since the 2023 elections.
Fintiri’s movement from the PDP to the APC has altered Adamawa’s party alignment. Similarly, Bala Mohammed’s decision to join the APM has introduced a new platform into Bauchi’s succession contest. In Oyo, Governor Seyi Makinde’s political alliance with the APM has created another dimension, particularly because he has emerged as the party’s presidential candidate.
These developments illustrate how the succession contests are connected to wider national political calculations. Outgoing governors may seek to preserve their influence through preferred candidates, political alliances or continued participation in national politics. Nevertheless, their ability to shape the final outcome will depend on voters, party organisation and the strength of competing candidates.
Furthermore, the emergence of an incumbent-backed candidate does not automatically guarantee continuity. Political endorsements and party structures can influence campaigns, but voters retain the power to determine who succeeds an outgoing administration.
Lagos & Ogun: Succession, political dominance & regional representation
In Lagos, the APC’s long-standing political dominance will face another electoral test as Sanwo-Olu prepares to leave office. Deputy Governor Obafemi Hamzat has emerged as the party’s governorship candidate, placing him in a position to seek continuity within the existing political structure.
The succession process carries particular significance because Lagos has remained under the political structure associated with President Bola Tinubu since 1999. Tinubu governed the state from 1999 to 2007 before handing over to Babatunde Fashola, who completed two terms. Akinwunmi Ambode succeeded Fashola in 2015, while Sanwo-Olu took over in 2019.
However, the 2027 contest will not be confined to the APC’s succession arrangement. Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour of the ADC, Funso Doherty of the NDC and Adedeji Olugbemiga Doherty of the PDP are among the opposition candidates listed by INEC.
The presence of several parties creates a broad electoral contest, although the strength of each candidate will depend on organisation, public engagement and the ability to mobilise support across the state.
A related but distinct succession debate is unfolding in Ogun. Governor Dapo Abiodun will complete his second term in May 2027, while Senator Solomon Olamilekan Adeola, popularly known as Yayi, is contesting on the APC platform.
Adeola’s candidacy has attracted attention because he represents Ogun West, a senatorial district that has not produced a governor since Nigeria’s return to democratic rule in 1999. Consequently, the contest has become closely linked to the longstanding demand for the district to occupy the state’s highest political office.
Nevertheless, regional aspiration is only one factor in the election. The APC candidate will face contenders from other parties, while the PDP’s absence from INEC’s final Ogun list following the exclusion of Oladipupo Adebutu has complicated the opposition’s position.
The exclusion also illustrates how party compliance with electoral requirements can affect the political choices available to voters. It has therefore become part of the wider discussion about the strength and preparedness of opposition parties ahead of the election.
Oyo & Bauchi: The APM factor & the politics of realignment
Oyo and Bauchi provide two important examples of how political realignment can influence succession contests.
In Oyo, Makinde’s second-term departure coincides with his involvement in a wider political arrangement between the PDP and the APM. His emergence as the APM’s presidential candidate has extended his political activities beyond the state, while the party’s governorship candidate, Adekanmbi Abimbola, is seeking to succeed him.
Meanwhile, the APC has presented Sharafadeen Alli, and the PDP’s Hazeem Gbolarumi is also among the candidates listed for the contest.
The governorship election will therefore have implications for the future of the political arrangement associated with Makinde. It will also test whether the alliances established at the national level can translate into electoral support within Oyo.
However, the outcome cannot be determined solely by the outgoing governor’s political profile. The candidates must establish their own appeal, present credible programmes and convince voters that they can address the state’s priorities.
Bauchi’s political transition presents a different but related situation. Governor Bala Mohammed left the PDP and joined the APM in May 2026, following the prolonged leadership crisis within the opposition party.
The move placed the APM at the centre of the governor’s political calculations ahead of his departure. Its governorship candidate, Adamu Yakubu, will face contenders from several parties, including the APC’s Abubakar Mohammed Abdullahi.
For the APM, the contest offers an opportunity to establish a stronger political presence in a state previously governed by the PDP. Conversely, the APC and other parties will seek to challenge the political structure associated with the outgoing administration.
The succession process will consequently examine the relationship between party realignment, the influence of incumbency and the ability of political organisations to retain their supporters after a change of platform.
Adamawa: Fintiri’s APC move & the challenge of political consolidation
Adamawa’s succession contest has also acquired a new dimension following Governor Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri’s defection from the PDP to the APC in February 2026.
Fintiri won the governorship in 2019 and secured re-election in 2023. His movement to the ruling party at the national level altered the political alignment in Adamawa, bringing members of his administration and other political actors into the APC structure.
The party has nominated Aminu Ahmed Galadima as its governorship candidate. He will face candidates from a wide range of political parties, including the PDP, ADC, NDC and other opposition groups.
Nevertheless, the APC’s control of the state government does not settle the succession question. Galadima’s campaign will have to establish its own support base, while opposition candidates will seek to benefit from any dissatisfaction with the existing political arrangement.
The election will therefore provide an opportunity to examine whether Fintiri’s political realignment has strengthened the APC’s position and whether his influence can extend beyond his own tenure.
Borno & Yobe: Continuity, party structures & the demand for rotation
In Borno, Governor Babagana Zulum’s departure will bring an end to his eight-year tenure, leaving the APC to defend its position through its governorship candidate, Gubio Alhaji Mustapha.
Zulum assumed office in 2019 and secured re-election four years later. His administration has operated within a political environment in which party organisation and the influence of established stakeholders remain important to electoral competition.
Mustapha will face opposition candidates seeking to challenge the APC’s control of the state. Meanwhile, the ruling party will have to manage the transition from an incumbent administration to a new candidate without assuming that its existing political advantage will automatically translate into electoral success.
Yobe’s succession debate involves an additional issue: the distribution of political power among the state’s three senatorial districts.
Governor Mai Mala Buni will complete his second term in May 2027, while the APC has nominated Baba Wali as its candidate. However, political stakeholders have continued to debate the historical distribution of the governorship.
Since 1999, Yobe East has largely dominated the state’s governorship position, apart from the tenure of the late Mamman Bello Ali, who came from Yobe South. This history has encouraged demands from stakeholders in other districts for a shift in political power.
Advocates of rotation argue that a broader distribution of political opportunities would promote fairness and inclusion. Nevertheless, the debate will have to compete with other electoral considerations, including party loyalty, candidate credibility and the ability to mobilise support.
For the APC, managing these interests will form part of the challenge of defending its position in the state.
Gombe: Electoral rules & the controversy surrounding Pantami
Gombe’s succession contest will take place after Governor Muhammadu Inuwa Yahaya completes his second term. The governor won election in 2019 and secured another four-year mandate in 2023, leaving the governorship open to a new set of candidates.
The race has attracted attention because of the political controversy surrounding former Minister of Communications and Digital Economy, Professor Isa Ali Pantami.
Pantami emerged from a fresh PDP governorship primary following earlier legal disputes. However, INEC excluded his name from the final list of candidates for Gombe. The commission also omitted the PDP from the published ballot, leaving the party without a listed candidate for the election.
The exclusion followed disputes surrounding the party’s compliance with statutory requirements on membership registers submitted to the electoral commission. Although the development generated questions about Pantami’s participation, the final list remained the official basis for identifying the candidates cleared for the contest.
The APC’s Gwamna Jamil Isyaku is among those listed, alongside candidates from other parties. Consequently, the election will test the ability of the various political organisations to consolidate their support in a contest shaped partly by the absence of the PDP from the final list.
Beyond the immediate controversy, the Gombe experience highlights the growing importance of internal party administration and compliance with electoral regulations. A party’s choice of candidate may become politically ineffective if it fails to satisfy the legal requirements governing participation in an election.
Nasarawa & Kwara: The politics of inclusion & representation
In Nasarawa, the succession contest has brought zoning and political representation to the centre of the debate.
Governor Abdullahi Sule will complete his second term in May 2027. The APC has nominated Senator Aliyu Ahmed Wadada, while the opposition field includes candidates from the PDP, ADC, SDP, Labour Party, NNPP and other parties.
However, political stakeholders have not agreed on how the governorship should be distributed among the state’s three senatorial districts. Former governor Tanko Al-Makura has reportedly favoured an open contest, while Sule has supported the continuation of the existing zoning arrangement.
Sule has also said he has not endorsed any candidate and would support a process that respects the state’s political understanding. These positions reflect the competing interests within the political establishment and the challenge of balancing open competition with demands for equitable representation.
Kwara presents a related debate, although its political history and demands differ from those in Nasarawa.
Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq will leave office after completing his second term, while the APC has nominated Yakubu Danladi-Salihu as its governorship candidate.
One of the major issues is the demand for Kwara North Senatorial District to produce the next governor. The district has not occupied the state’s highest political office since the return to democratic rule in 1999, prompting calls for a change in the distribution of power.
Religious representation has also entered the discussion. Some Christian stakeholders have advocated the emergence of a Christian governor, adding another dimension to the debate about political inclusion.
Meanwhile, the APC candidate will face contenders from the PDP, ADC, SDP and other parties. The election will therefore bring together questions of party competition, regional representation and religious diversity.
The broader electoral test: Party strength, voter choice & political accountability
Taken together, the ten succession contests reveal a political landscape shaped by different but interconnected pressures. Lagos and Ogun face questions surrounding political continuity and regional representation. Oyo and Bauchi are navigating the implications of the APM’s emergence and wider political alliances. Adamawa must contend with the consequences of Fintiri’s defection, while Gombe faces the electoral implications of party compliance disputes.
In Nasarawa, Yobe and Kwara, zoning and demands for power rotation have become important parts of the political conversation. Borno, meanwhile, faces the challenge of managing a transition within an established ruling-party structure.
These developments also raise a broader question about the relationship between outgoing governors and the democratic process. Although governors may retain considerable political influence after leaving office, they cannot determine succession outcomes independently of voters.
Equally, political parties must demonstrate that they can manage internal disagreements, comply with electoral requirements and present candidates capable of competing on their records and policy proposals.
For voters, the succession elections offer an opportunity to assess the achievements and shortcomings of outgoing administrations while considering the proposals of those seeking to replace them. Issues such as infrastructure, education, healthcare, employment, security and public finance will remain central to the quality of governance beyond the campaigns.
As the 2027 elections approach, the contest across these ten states will therefore involve more than the search for new occupants of government houses. It will test the resilience of political parties, the influence of established leaders, the demands of regional inclusion and the capacity of voters to shape the next generation of state leadership.
The departure of ten governors will close one political chapter in May 2027. The elections will determine how the next chapter begins.
