By NINI NDUONOFIT-AKOH

₦58.6tr Fuel Bill: Nigeria’s CNG Promise Struggles to Ease Transport Crisis

Three Years After Subsidy Removal, the Promise Remains Elusive

FOR millions of Nigerian motorists, the promise that compressed natural gas (CNG) would provide a cheaper alternative to petrol has yet to become an everyday reality.

Nearly three years after the Federal Government introduced the Presidential Compressed Natural Gas Initiative (P-CNGi), adoption remains far below the ambitious target of converting one million vehicles.

The slow rollout has become more consequential as petrol prices have surged since the removal of the Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) subsidy in May 2023.

Available figures indicate that Nigerians have spent an estimated ₦58.6 trillion on petrol since the subsidy removal, while transportation costs have continued to rise.

The CNG intervention was expected to reduce dependence on petrol, lower motorists’ operating expenses and ultimately ease transport fares. Instead, limited infrastructure, long queues, conversion costs and uneven state-level implementation have restricted its impact.

A Fuel Bill That Keeps Rising

Before subsidy removal, the average retail price of petrol stood at ₦263.76k per litre in March 2023, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

At an estimated national consumption of 50 million litres daily, that translated into a monthly petrol bill of roughly ₦407 billion.

The picture changed dramatically after subsidy removal.

By June 2023, the average retail price had climbed to ₦545.83k per litre. By December, it had reached ₦671.86k.

The 2023 average stood at about ₦624.69k per litre, producing an estimated annual petrol expenditure of roughly ₦11.2 trillion at the same consumption level.

The pressure intensified in 2024. Average petrol prices rose to ₦872.09k per litre, with the national average exceeding ₦1,000 from September and peaking at ₦1,214.17k in November.

At the assumed daily consumption rate, the estimated annual petrol bill reached approximately ₦15.9 trillion.

In 2025, the average rose again to ₦1,104.88k per litre, translating into an estimated ₦19.8 trillion annual burden.

The first half of 2026 brought another escalation. Petrol averaged about ₦1,300.33k per litre between January and June, producing an estimated six-month expenditure of ₦11.7 trillion.

Taken together, these estimates underline the extraordinary financial pressure placed on households and businesses since the subsidy regime ended.

CNG Adoption Runs Into Infrastructure Reality

Against this backdrop, the Federal Government has pushed CNG as one of its principal responses.

The administration has targeted one million vehicle conversions and ordered the expansion of CNG refuelling infrastructure.

The P-CNGi says it has certified more than 400 conversion centres, established over 90 refuelling stations and trained more than 7,700 technicians.

It also reports more than 120,000 converted vehicles, over $2.5 billion in investment and about 10,000 jobs created.

Those figures represent progress, but they remain modest compared with the scale of Nigeria’s transport and energy needs.

The government has also announced plans for hundreds of additional CNG stations.

The gap between the official ambition and what motorists experience on the ground, however, remains substantial.

Long Queues Undermine the Attraction

In Abuja, motorists have encountered the practical difficulties that can turn a cheaper fuel into an expensive inconvenience.

At the Rolling Mother station in Jabi, motorists reportedly waited for hours, with some arriving as early as 4 a.m. before the facility opened around noon.

At the Nipco station near Next Cash & Carry, the facility was reportedly deserted because a faulty compression machine had prevented CNG sales for months.

At the NNPC station in Gudu, long queues formed around limited operational pumps.

For commercial drivers whose earnings depend on maximising trips, hours spent waiting for fuel can wipe out much of the economic advantage of CNG.

That is one reason some motorists continue to rely on petrol despite its higher price.

Transport Costs Carry the Crisis Into Daily Life

The consequences extend beyond filling stations.

NBS transport data showed that average intra-city bus fares reached ₦1,431.25k per trip in May 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 38.63 per cent.

Intercity bus fares rose to ₦9,699.55k, while domestic airfares reached ₦157,552.19k.

Motorcycle fares recorded an even sharper annual increase of 52.45 per cent, reaching ₦1,072.51k.

For workers who commute daily, transportation has consequently become a significant component of household expenditure.

Real estate broker Mary Micheal said her daily journey between Area 1 and Centenary City costs between ₦7,500 and ₦10,000 when she uses InDrive, consuming about 48 per cent of her earnings.

Communications professional Zipporah Peter similarly said transportation takes roughly half of her salary.

For Donen Danga, a journey from Jabi to Berger that cost about ₦100 in 2023/2024 now costs around ₦400.

Where CNG Works, the Savings Are Visible

Despite the frustrations, some motorists have demonstrated that CNG can deliver substantial savings when the infrastructure works.

E-hailing driver Mustapha Adesina, who converted his vehicle three weeks before the report, said an 80-litre cylinder carrying approximately 20 to 21 standard cubic metres of gas costs about ₦10,000 at ₦500 per standard cubic metre.

He said that amount can support journeys of roughly 120 kilometres and generate between ₦40,000 and ₦45,000 in fares.

Yet even after conversion, Adesina still faces lengthy queues.

His experience captures the central contradiction in Nigeria’s CNG experiment: the fuel can be significantly cheaper to operate with, but access to it remains difficult.

Conversion Costs Add Another Barrier

For other motorists, the conversion process itself presents a financial obstacle.

Kano-based motorist Ibrahim Muktar said converting his UK-used Honda Civic would cost between ₦600,000 and ₦700,000, while the vehicle’s suitability for conversion also remains a consideration.

E-hailing driver Victor Shola has avoided CNG largely because of the queues. He said waiting four to six hours, and sometimes overnight, makes the fuel impractical for his business.

Rather than converting, he would prefer to move eventually to an electric vehicle.

Such experiences highlight the difference between the theoretical cost of CNG and its real economic value to motorists.

States Show Uneven Results

The federal programme has also produced markedly different outcomes across states.

Lagos has received about 20 operational CNG buses since November 2024 and is considering a much larger deployment through public-private partnerships.

Oyo and Ogun were among the early beneficiaries, while Oyo has also converted dozens of vehicles free of charge.

Ekiti received 15 buses, but its conversion centres were reportedly yet to begin operating and the state lacked a CNG filling station.

Enugu is developing a mother station intended to serve the South-East.

Other states, including Cross River, Osun, Edo, Plateau and Ondo, have reported limited federal support.

Niger State procured 200 buses but received only half of them.

In Kano, CNG buses and tricycles operate on some routes, but the absence of a formal fuel subsidy means operators still face the full cost of gas. Consequently, commuters have not necessarily seen fares fall.

Planning, Not the Idea, Under Scrutiny

Stakeholders have largely questioned implementation rather than the underlying concept.

Human rights lawyer Malachy Ugwummadu attributed the difficulties to inadequate planning, especially the shortage of conversion facilities and refuelling stations.

He also pointed to the financial burden confronting households after subsidy removal.

Lawyer and human rights activist Femi Falana called for stronger partnerships with private operators to expand the availability of CNG buses.

The criticism points to a fundamental policy problem: infrastructure needs to expand ahead of demand if consumers are expected to abandon petrol.

The 2027 Deadline Approaches

The Federal Government has introduced tax and import incentives for CNG, LPG and electric vehicles in an effort to accelerate the transition.

The P-CNGi says it has deployed buses, procured thousands of tricycles and trained technicians, while maintaining its goal of one million conversions by 2027.

But the distance between official targets and motorists’ daily experiences remains wide.

For a policy designed to reduce the impact of expensive petrol, success cannot ultimately be measured only by the number of conversion centres opened or vehicles converted.

It must also be measured by whether Nigerians spend less on mobility, whether commercial drivers lose fewer hours to fuel queues and whether commuters actually feel a reduction in transport costs.

Until those changes become visible in everyday life, the CNG initiative will remain a promise struggling to catch up with the realities of Nigeria’s fuel and transportation crisis.