Nigeria Leads Africa’s Rooftop Solar Revolution, But Grid Remains Weak — Report
Energy Transition Driven by Consumers Rather Than the National Grid
NIGERIA’S renewable energy transition is increasingly being powered by households and businesses rather than public electricity infrastructure, with new research showing that consumer-led solar adoption is accelerating despite limited investment in large-scale renewable power generation.
BloombergNEF’s latest Sub-Saharan Africa Renewable Energy Market Outlook identifies Nigeria as the fastest-growing small-scale solar market in sub-Saharan Africa, driven largely by unreliable electricity supply and escalating operating costs associated with diesel and petrol generators.
The report predicts that Nigeria will continue leading distributed solar installations across the region through 2035, even as South Africa retains its position as Africa’s dominant destination for utility-scale renewable energy investment.
Electricity Crisis Fuels Consumer Shift
According to BloombergNEF, worsening power shortages have fundamentally changed how Nigerians access electricity.
Homes, businesses and commercial enterprises are increasingly investing in rooftop solar systems combined with battery storage to reduce dependence on the unstable national grid.
The report estimates that Nigeria added 3.1GW of distributed solar capacity over the past two years, with cumulative installed capacity reaching approximately 6GW.
Forecasts indicate total installed solar capacity could rise to nearly 87GW by 2035 as electricity consumers continue embracing renewable alternatives.
BloombergNEF compared Nigeria’s experience to Pakistan, where rooftop solar has similarly expanded rapidly as consumers respond to unreliable public electricity systems.
Grid Infrastructure Fails to Match Market Growth
While consumer demand for renewable energy continues to expand, the report found that Nigeria’s utility-scale renewable sector remains underdeveloped.
Only two significant grid-connected solar projects became operational between 2020 and 2025, reflecting what BloombergNEF describes as an inconsistent investment environment.
Unlike several African markets operating competitive renewable energy auctions and structured procurement programmes, Nigeria has yet to establish a predictable framework capable of attracting sustained private-sector investment into grid-scale solar and wind projects.
The report warns that continued uncertainty surrounding project procurement could further slow investments needed to strengthen the national transmission system.
Regional Comparison Highlights Policy Gap
Among the 16 African countries assessed, South Africa, Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo possess relatively robust utility-scale renewable project pipelines.
Nigeria and Kenya, by contrast, remain heavily dependent on distributed renewable systems, although Kenya could see renewed investment if planned government procurement programmes move forward.
BloombergNEF also observed that utilities and corporate organisations signed power purchase agreements across 14 of the 16 markets surveyed, signalling increasing investor confidence where transparent procurement mechanisms exist.
Reforms Seen as Critical to Future Growth
Despite ranking among Africa’s largest importers of renewable energy equipment, Nigeria recorded virtually no financing for new utility-scale renewable projects during the review period.
BloombergNEF argues that the country’s greatest renewable energy challenge is no longer stimulating demand but creating policies capable of converting strong market interest into large-scale electricity generation projects.
The report concludes that without comprehensive reforms to procurement systems and investment frameworks, Nigeria’s expanding solar market will continue to benefit individual consumers while doing little to strengthen the national grid or resolve the country’s long-standing electricity deficit.
