Expert: Weak Monitoring Driving Grid Failures

NIGERIA’S persistent national grid collapses are largely the result of poor real-time monitoring and weak operational control, an energy expert has said, dismissing claims that vandalism and ageing infrastructure are the primary causes.

Sam Caulcrick, an energy analyst and author, said the recurring blackouts point to systemic failures in the management of the transmission network rather than isolated technical faults.

The Core Problem: No Real-Time Control

According to Caulcrick, the Transmission Company of Nigeria has been unable to effectively manage electricity flow because it lacks full visibility of the grid in real time.

At the centre of this challenge is the incomplete deployment of SCADA systems, which are essential for monitoring voltage, frequency, and power flows across high-voltage transmission lines.

“Without SCADA, operators are essentially flying blind,” he said. “They cannot see disturbances as they develop, and by the time action is taken, the system is already collapsing.”

Understanding Frequency Instability

Caulcrick explained that electricity systems require a delicate balance between generation and consumption. In Nigeria, this balance is often lost during sudden spikes in demand.

When system frequency drops below acceptable limits, protective mechanisms automatically shut down generators and transmission lines to prevent damage. While these protections are necessary, they can trigger widespread outages if not carefully managed.

“In Nigeria, once frequency falls, there is little coordinated response,” he said. “Generators trip, lines disconnect, and the disturbance spreads nationwide.”

Cascading Failures and Weak Automation

The expert described Nigeria’s grid as particularly prone to cascading failures, where a single fault rapidly triggers multiple shutdowns.

In more advanced systems, automatic generation control and sufficient grid inertia stabilise frequency almost instantly. In contrast, Nigeria’s weak automation and poor coordination leave the system exposed.

“The safeguards that should arrest disturbances often fail,” Caulcrick said.

Operating Without Safety Margins

Another major concern, he noted, is the frequent operation of the grid without adequate spinning reserves.

“Running the grid without buffers is risky,” he said. “Even a minor disturbance can bring the entire system down.”

He added that controlled load shedding—temporarily reducing supply to certain areas—could prevent total collapse if operators had the tools and authority to act quickly.

Debunking Common Explanations

While vandalism, ageing infrastructure and funding shortages are often cited as causes of grid collapse, Caulcrick said these factors only compound an already fragile system.

“Countries with older infrastructure still maintain stable grids because they invest in monitoring and control,” he said. “Nigeria’s challenge is managerial and operational.”

Accountability and Institutional Responsibility

Caulcrick stressed that system stability is the statutory responsibility of the Transmission Company of Nigeria.

“This is not about blame for its own sake,” he said. “But accountability is necessary if the system is to improve.”

He said TCN must prioritise real-time monitoring, improve coordination with power generation companies, and ensure disciplined load management.

Economic and Social Costs

The consequences of repeated grid collapse, he warned, extend far beyond inconvenience. Industries suffer production losses, small businesses incur higher costs, and households face prolonged blackouts.

“Unreliable electricity erodes economic competitiveness and public trust,” Caulcrick said.

The Way Forward

Caulcrick concluded that Nigeria’s power crisis will persist unless decisive action is taken to modernise grid operations.

“Deploying SCADA nationwide is no longer optional,” he said. “Professional grid management, strong automation, and real-time control are essential if Nigeria is serious about energy security.”

He warned that without these reforms, grid collapse would remain a recurring threat, undermining development goals and public confidence in the power sector.