Power Crisis Deepens: Grid Instability & Plant Underperformance Threaten Supply
By NINI NDUONOFIT-AKOH
LOW OUTPUT, HIGH EXPECTATIONS – NIGERIA’S POWER CRISIS DEEPENS
Power Generation Collapses to 38% Availability
NIGERIA’S power generation sector faced a dramatic underperformance in December 2025, with grid-connected plants operating at only 38 per cent of installed capacity, according to the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC). Out of the 13,625 megawatts (MW) installed nationwide, just 5,151MW were available for dispatch at any given time, reflecting a 62 per cent shortfall.
This persistent gap between capacity and actual output highlights structural weaknesses in the electricity value chain despite years of reform and billions of dollars invested in new generation assets.
Over-Reliance on a Few Plants
The NERC report revealed a heavy concentration of generation among the top 10 stations, which produced 81 per cent of all electricity in December. Hydropower stations such as Zungeru, Kainji, and Jebba fared relatively well, with Zungeru operating at full availability and generating at an 83 per cent load factor.
In contrast, many thermal plants struggled due to gas supply issues, maintenance backlogs, and operational inefficiencies. Some plants, including Alaoji One, Ibom Power One, and Trans Amadi One, recorded minimal or no generation.
Grid Instability Compounds Challenges
Grid performance also raised alarms. Average voltage and frequency levels fell outside prescribed limits, signaling operational stress. The lower voltage averaged 302.84kV (below the minimum 313.50kV), while the upper voltage hit 347.52kV (above the maximum 346.50kV). Frequency fluctuated between 49.14Hz and 50.63Hz, outside the regulatory band of 49.75Hz to 50.25Hz.
Such instability forces operators to constrain generation further, even when plants are technically available, perpetuating low usable output.
The Road Ahead
Despite high utilisation of available capacity, the fundamental challenge remains availability itself. Addressing bottlenecks in gas supply, transmission, distribution, and system operations is crucial. Until these issues are resolved, Nigeria’s power sector risks remaining trapped in low output and unmet demand cycles.
