The Debris Of War: Civilians, Intelligence Gaps & 2025’s Terror Toll

By TOSI ORE

Human Impact, Intelligence and Institutional Fragility Lens

2025 proved that Nigeria’s war on terror was fought—but fragility, not firepower, became the country’s biggest enemy. The year began with measurable military outcomes but closed with deeper questions around intelligence failure, border porosity, forest-based insurgent mobility, negotiation opacity, and civilian vulnerability.

One of the most consequential intelligence blind spots was the death of Brigadier General Musa Uba, a senior officer whose killing revealed that extremist groups have evolved to reach high-value military targets. The incident exposed strategic blind spots in intelligence penetration, surveillance forecasting, and insurgent battlefield mapping. Troop morale was affected not by the fact of death, but the rank of the fallen.

Nigeria’s forest reserves became de-facto insurgent republics in 2025. From the Bauni Forest in Sokoto to corridors linking Benin and Niger, extremists used unmapped terrain to regroup, move arms, and coordinate raids. Nigeria responded by training 7,000 forest guards to reclaim these spaces—but the terrain remains Nigeria’s biggest unmanned theatre.

Nigeria’s security diplomacy fractured when Trump’s rhetoric internationalised the terror narrative, reframing Nigeria as a religious conflict zone. Weeks later, US-Nigeria intelligence collaboration produced airstrikes on Islamic State-affiliated targets in Sokoto. While official briefings stressed precision, munitions debris landing near civilian settlements sparked panic, raising questions about war-debris accountability and the collateral risks of foreign firepower—even when approved domestically.

But nothing eroded public trust faster than mass abductions. In November alone, insurgents seized dozens from schools in Kebbi and Niger, and worshippers from a church in Kwara. Most victims were later released, but the government refused to disclose terms, relying instead on the controversial justification: “The end justifies the means.”

Military agencies counted their wins—arrests, surrenders, air raids, rescues—but Nigerians remembered the losses: the farmers killed in Dumba, the 100+ civilians killed in Benue, the tactical kidnaps, and the silence that followed negotiations.

The year did not simply overshadow Tinubu’s gains—it exposed their reversibility. The real lesson of 2025 is not that Nigeria lacks capacity, but that Nigeria lacks insulation against fragility. And until that changes, terror will remain ahead of victory.