Crude-Rich, Fuel-Poor: The Hidden Crisis In Africa’s Energy Chain
By NINI NDUONOFIT-AKOH & ESTHER McWILLIS-IKHIDE
Africa’s Refining Paradox
Africa’s Fuel Trap in a Changing World
AFRICA sits on vast crude oil reserves, yet its economies remain dangerously exposed to fuel import shocks. The paradox is stark: the continent produces more than five million barrels of crude daily, but still imports over 70 per cent of its refined fuel. This dependence is not theoretical—it is a structural weakness that could cripple cities, industries and health systems within weeks of a supply disruption.
Recent simulations by industry bodies reveal that even a 30-day halt in fuel imports would paralyse Africa’s megacities, ground aviation, shut hospitals reliant on diesel power and destabilise already fragile economies. Despite repeated refinery announcements, Africa remains locked in what experts increasingly describe as “downstream dependency slavery.”
Europe’s Retreat and Africa’s Exposure
The vulnerability is intensifying as Europe, Africa’s main fuel supplier, steadily shuts down refineries under pressure from high costs, environmental rules and shrinking margins. Dozens of European refineries have closed since 2009, with more at risk over the next decade. Yet West Africa alone absorbed a third of Europe’s gasoline exports in 2023, underscoring how deeply Africa depends on a shrinking external refining base.
This shift means Africa’s fuel security is now tied to facilities it neither controls nor can influence—an increasingly dangerous gamble as global energy geopolitics tighten.
Nigeria: Refining Giant, Import Addict
Nigeria exemplifies the contradiction. On paper, it has over one million barrels per day in installed refining capacity. In reality, less than half of that is utilised. Despite commissioning Africa’s largest refinery, Nigeria still imports most of its petrol, while demand continues to rise sharply.
More troubling is the emergence of a single-supplier risk. With state-owned refineries dormant, domestic petrol supply hinges almost entirely on one private facility, leaving the system vulnerable to output fluctuations and logistical shocks.
Refineries Alone Are Not Enough
Across Africa, refinery projects are multiplying—from Angola to Ethiopia—but refining alone will not break the dependency cycle. Weak pipelines, congested ports, fragmented fuel standards and unstable regulations undermine investor confidence and limit regional trade. Without integrated infrastructure and harmonised policies, new refineries risk becoming isolated islands in a broken system.
The Strategic Choice Ahead
Africa’s fuel challenge is no longer just economic—it is strategic. Without coordinated investment in refining, storage, logistics and clean fuel standards, the continent will remain exposed to global shocks. The real question is not whether Africa can build refineries, but whether it can build a complete, bankable downstream ecosystem before rising demand overwhelms fragile supply chains.
