Oil Benchmarks, Tax Pushback Stall Nigeria’s 2026 Budget
By NJORIGE LYNUS
Tinubu’s Fiscal Overhaul Raises Questions Over 2026 Budget Viability
FRESH concerns have emerged over Nigeria’s 2026 budget following President Bola Tinubu’s push to repeal and re-enact the 2024 and 2025 Appropriation Acts under a single ₦43.56 trillion spending framework. The proposal, now before the National Assembly, is aimed at curbing the long-standing practice of running multiple budgets concurrently, but critics warn it could further complicate fiscal planning.
The Senate has advanced the bill, detailing allocations for statutory transfers, debt servicing, recurrent expenditure and capital projects, while directing key economic officials to clarify assumptions underpinning the plan. However, the House of Representatives has delayed approval of the 2026–2028 MTEF/FSP after lawmakers failed to agree on oil price benchmarks, a development that could delay or weaken the legal foundation for the 2026 budget.
Despite these unresolved issues, President Tinubu is expected to present the 2026 budget estimates to a joint session of the National Assembly, raising questions about compliance with the Fiscal Responsibility Act, which requires an approved MTEF/FSP before annual budgets are prepared. Analysts fear the 2026 budget could end up competing for attention with the consolidated 2024–2025 budget.
At the centre of the impasse is Nigeria’s deepening revenue crisis. Finance Minister Wale Edun has disclosed that the Federal Government may record a ₦30.1 trillion revenue shortfall in 2025, driven largely by weak oil revenues and poor tax performance. Meanwhile, opposition groups continue to resist proposed tax reforms, arguing they are ill-timed and socially harmful. Economists warn that unless revenue assumptions are realistic and implementation disciplined, the 2026 budget risks becoming another largely symbolic document.
