Banditry, Climate Shocks Push Nigeria Toward A 2026 Food Emergency
By HALIMA TAKWAS
NIGERIA’S agricultural sector is under mounting strain as banditry, insurgency, and climate change converge to threaten food production and deepen hunger across the country. Experts warn that without urgent government intervention, the nation may face one of its worst food crises in 2026.
The latest alert came from the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP), which cautioned that growing insecurity in northern Nigeria is driving hunger to unprecedented levels. According to the newest Cadre Harmonisé food security analysis, nearly 35 million Nigerians could face severe food insecurity during the 2026 lean season—potentially the highest figure ever recorded.
WFP Country Director, David Stevenson, said rural communities are bearing the harshest impact. “Repeated attacks and economic pressures are pushing families to the brink. Hunger itself is becoming a weapon, used by insurgent groups to expand influence,” he said.
Insecurity Cuts Deep Into Food Production
Across northern states, attacks by armed groups have intensified. JNIM, an al-Qaeda affiliate, launched its first attack in Nigeria recently, while ISWAP continues expanding across the Sahel. Schools have been raided, teachers kidnapped, and even senior military officers killed.
Farmers are among the most vulnerable. Many have abandoned their farmlands after repeated threats. Recent incidents include the kidnapping of:
– Four rice farmers in Kwara State,
– Twenty-four farmers in Angwar Kawo, Niger State,
– Twelve female farmers in Askira-Uba, Borno State.
Survivors describe these attacks as sudden and coordinated, with gunmen firing sporadically before abducting victims. Police authorities confirm investigations are ongoing, but fear persists across farming communities.
Hunger Numbers Worsen Across the North
WFP estimates that nearly six million people in Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe could face crisis-level hunger during the 2026 lean season. About 15,000 people in Borno may experience catastrophic famine-like conditions. Children remain most at risk, especially in Sokoto, Zamfara, Yobe, and Borno.
Farmers Struggling Under Economic Pressure
At the 2025 National Agricultural Show in Nasarawa, the President of the Nigeria Agribusiness Group, Kabir Ibrahim, said that smallholder farmers—responsible for most of Nigeria’s food production—are being “stretched to breaking point.”
He cited low commodity prices, unaffordable inputs, insecurity, and weak purchasing power as key factors crippling production.
He called for immediate reinstatement of the Guaranteed Minimum Price (GMP) and revitalization of the National Agricultural Reserve Agency (NAFRA) to stabilize the food system.
Climate Change Adds Another Blow
Alongside insecurity, climate change is taking a heavy toll. Erratic rainfall, droughts, intense heat, and flooding are disrupting planting cycles, destroying harvests, and driving up food prices. A report by the Cheetahs Policy Institute notes that climate-related disasters, combined with inflation and conflict, are accelerating hunger levels nationwide.
Agribusiness entrepreneur Hassan Musa emphasized the need for climate-smart agriculture and investment in irrigation facilities. “We need infrastructure that guarantees year-round farming,” he said.
The World Health Organisation has also warned that climate change threatens access to clean water, food, and safe shelter—conditions that directly affect agricultural productivity.
A Call for Modernised, Mechanised, Climate-Smart Farming
Experts in the agricultural sector are urging farmers and government officials to adopt modern farming solutions including:
– Soilless and smart agriculture
– Backyard and urban farming
– Improved irrigation systems
– Drought-resilient crop varieties
– Mechanisation and digital technologies
– Sustainable land management practices
They argue that Nigeria can still avert a deeper crisis if the government takes decisive action now—by improving security, supporting farmers, expanding mechanisation, and strengthening climate adaptation strategies.
Without immediate intervention, stakeholders warn that the combination of banditry, climate shocks, and rising costs could push the country toward a full-blown food emergency in 2026.
