2027 Elections At Risk: Experts Warn Of Deepening Voter Apathy
Low Turnout in 2023 Sets a Dangerous Precedent
NIGERIA’S 2027 general elections may see the lowest voter turnout in the nation’s democratic history, experts warn, as concerns over credibility, security, and public trust intensify. In the 2023 presidential election, only 26.71% of registered voters—approximately 24.97 million out of 93.47 million—participated, marking the lowest engagement since the return to civil rule in 1999.
Official results from INEC showed that Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) secured 8,794,726 votes (36.61%), Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) had 6,984,520 votes (29.07%), Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) received 6,101,533 votes (25.40%), while Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) garnered 1,496,687 votes (6.23%).
Analysts argue that this record-low turnout reflects growing disillusionment among Nigerians, who increasingly perceive elections as ineffective, risky, or manipulated.
Erosion of Public Confidence and Electoral Legitimacy
Chief Chekwas Okorie, founder of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), expressed concern over voter apathy, describing it as a serious threat to Nigeria’s democratic stability.
“Less than 30 percent of the population votes for leaders in elections. When that happens, the leader becomes unpopular because the majority did not give him their mandate. This is dangerous for democracy,” Okorie said.
He noted that the recent FCT council elections illustrate this problem on a smaller scale, predicting voter turnout could be as low as 15%. “If the people haven’t come out to vote for you, and the overwhelming majority sit back, you can’t claim legitimacy. You’ll be entering office as an unpopular elected official,” he added.
New Electoral Act Adds to Uncertainty
The introduction of the 2026 Electoral Act, signed into law by President Tinubu, has raised further doubts. Critics argue that ambiguities in the law have undermined public trust. Okorie described the amendment as a “moral killer” that discourages citizen participation, particularly among minority communities and young voters.
“The electoral law amendment worsened the situation, reducing confidence in the system. If people don’t participate, the country risks instability because government lacks the people’s mandate,” Okorie said.
Structural Flaws and Manipulation
Engr. Martins Onovo, a former presidential candidate, emphasized the practical causes of voter apathy, pointing to systemic manipulation and security issues during past elections. He recounted personal experiences dating back to the 2007 elections, where polling agents were forcibly removed from collation centres, allowing results to be manipulated.
“When voters see their efforts negated by manipulation, why would they continue participating? People vote, endure long waits, and then results are altered. That’s the root cause of apathy,” Onovo explained.
He warned that voter participation in 2027 may decline further because the 2026 Electoral Act reintroduces paper as the “primary” source of official results, reversing the 2023 reliance on transmitted data. “Why would anybody go and vote?” he asked.
Security Concerns and Intimidation
Experts also link voter apathy to fear of violence and the perceived partisanship of security agencies. Justice Uhuegbu, human rights lawyer and president of the Association for Good Governance, said citizens will continue to avoid polling stations unless INEC restores public confidence.
“Young and older voters alike have lost trust. Even where voting materials arrive late, people used to wait patiently. Today, they see elections as pointless because their votes don’t count,” Uhuegbu said, citing cases during the recent FCT chairmanship elections where agents were killed, and security personnel were accused of siding with politicians.
Call for Institutional Reforms
Stakeholders across the political spectrum agree that reversing voter apathy requires decisive action from INEC and the executive arm of government. Ensuring credible, transparent, and secure elections is key to encouraging participation and safeguarding democracy.
“Elections must reflect the will of the people. Otherwise, the risk of instability grows. Nigeria must restore grassroots confidence to avoid further erosion of legitimacy,” Okorie emphasized.
As Nigeria prepares for the 2027 elections, the warnings are clear: failure to address structural, legal, and security-related obstacles could result in unprecedented disengagement, undermining the credibility of the democratic process and the mandate of elected leaders.
