2027: Disunited They Stand — How Opposition Infighting Could Hand Tinubu Another Victory

By TINA TOLUTOPE, Investigations Desk

AS Nigeria inches closer to the 2027 general elections, a familiar drama is unfolding across the political landscape — and, once again, it could play directly into President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s hands.

From Abuja to Awka, and Port Harcourt to Kano, opposition figures are plotting their comeback. Yet, beneath the surface lies the same old story: fragile alliances, inflated egos, and unresolved internal crises threatening to doom their ambitions before the race even begins.

This investigation reveals how the opposition’s failure to unite under a single vision — and candidate — could replicate the dynamics of 2023, when a fractured front cleared Tinubu’s path to Aso Rock with just 36% of the total vote.

A Race Repeating Itself

In 2023, Nigeria’s opposition had both numbers and momentum. Atiku Abubakar of the PDP, Peter Obi of the Labour Party, and Rabiu Kwankwaso of the NNPP collectively amassed nearly 15 million votes — a figure that dwarfed Tinubu’s 8.79 million. Yet, divided, they fell short.

Two years later, little has changed. Instead of reconciliation, the opposition spectrum — spanning the PDP, LP, ADC, NNPP, SDP, and the newly registered ADA — has splintered further.

“Unless these men drop their egos, Tinubu will coast again in 2027,” a top opposition strategist stated under condition of anonymity. “Everyone wants to be the hero of the rescue mission — and that’s the real problem.”

The PDP: A Party Still Lost in the Woods

Once Nigeria’s dominant political machine, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is now a house divided. The wounds of 2015 never fully healed, and the aftermath of 2023 has only deepened its fractures.

Mass defections, a split National Working Committee, and open rebellion by the Wike faction have reduced the party to internal bickering. Its November convention, originally billed as a relaunch, now risks becoming another battlefield.

Party elders such as Prof. Jerry Gana are calling for a “big tent” comeback — urging figures like Goodluck Jonathan and Peter Obi to return — but even that proposal faces fierce resistance from entrenched blocs.

“I’m not against Jonathan or Obi returning,” said PDP stalwart Olawepo-Hashim. “But we must have a transparent primary, not a coronation.”

Meanwhile, the Wike bloc — still in PDP on paper — is already tilting toward Tinubu’s reelection. The irony isn’t lost on many insiders: the PDP’s biggest internal powerbroker is actively strengthening its rival.

Labour Party and NNPP: Fractured Dreams

The 2023 elections made Peter Obi and the Labour Party symbols of youthful defiance. But nearly two years later, that movement has lost steam — crippled by court cases, leadership disputes, and competing claims to the party chairmanship.

Four factions currently claim ownership of the Labour Party. The latest rift pits Julius Abure against former minister Nenadi Usman, who reportedly enjoys Obi’s and Governor Alex Otti’s backing. Attempts by Obi’s running mate, Datti Baba-Ahmed, to broker peace have largely failed.

In Kano, the NNPP faces similar turmoil. Two factions now battle for control, leaving Kwankwaso’s once vibrant “Kwankwasiyya” movement adrift.

“Both parties won one state each,” notes political analyst Dr. Adaeze Ibekwe. “But neither has built a structure beyond its local base. That’s not how you challenge an incumbent.”

ADC and the New Coalitions: Hope or Mirage?

Amid the chaos, attention has shifted to the African Democratic Congress (ADC) — the supposed vessel for a grand opposition coalition. Yet, even here, unity remains elusive.

Insiders say the ADC is mired in its own leadership struggle, threatening its role as a credible unifying platform. “If the ADC collapses, the backup plan is ADA,” revealed one coalition member, referencing the newly registered All Democratic Alliance. “But the truth is, nobody wants to play second fiddle.”

The opposition’s so-called “Third Force” is also plagued by competing ambitions. Former VP Atiku Abubakar insists he won’t step down for anyone. Peter Obi has ruled out being a running mate.

“They all met last week,” a senior ADC source disclosed. “They agreed to ‘support whoever emerges,’ but everyone left with their own agenda.”

Analysts Warn: Tinubu’s Strongest Ally Is Opposition Chaos

Dr. Hakeem Baba-Ahmed, a former presidential adviser and Northern Elders Forum spokesman, says the pattern is clear.

“The PDP is in survival mode. It’s losing its northern base and fast becoming a southern regional party,” he observed. “The ADC hasn’t proven it’s a viable alternative either. The opposition is fragmented, leaderless, and drifting.”

Even within the ruling APC, internal tensions exist — particularly fears of alienating its northern Muslim bloc — but these are tempered by one advantage: power consolidation.

“Tinubu doesn’t need to be perfect,” one Abuja-based political scientist explained. “He just needs the opposition to stay divided.”

‘They’re United Only by Grievance’

Alhaji Yerima Shettima of the Northern Stakeholders Consultative Forum sees 2027 as déjà vu.

“In 2023, opposition divisions cleared Tinubu’s path. In 2027, it may be worse,” he said bluntly. “Most of them are united only in grievance, not ideology.”

Shettima insists Tinubu has outperformed expectations and could surpass Buhari’s legacy “in just four years” if given another term.

To him, opposition figures “pretend to fight for Nigerians” but are “driven by selfish ambitions.”

‘Coalitions Alone Won’t Save the Opposition’

Peter Ameh, former chairman of the Inter-Party Advisory Council, offered a sobering assessment:

“A coalition without credibility is just a stunt. Nigerians won’t vote for alliances—they’ll vote for character and competence.”

He warned that unless the opposition builds around trust, policy, and national vision, it will lose again — no matter how unpopular Tinubu’s administration becomes.

The 2027 Equation: One Party, Many Rivals

With Atiku, Obi, Jonathan, Amaechi, and Olawepo-Hashim all eyeing 2027, the opposition risks turning a two-way contest into a political free-for-all.

Meanwhile, Tinubu’s APC, armed with incumbency, control of 20 states, and an already mobilised structure, watches from the sidelines — its greatest threat not the opposition’s strength, but its own potential overconfidence.

Conclusion: A Familiar Warning

Nigeria has seen this movie before. In 2015, a united opposition swept a sitting president from power. In 2023, a divided one handed that power back to the incumbents.

Unless the opposition learns from history, 2027 may once again prove the same lesson: that in Nigerian politics, disunity isn’t just weakness — it’s surrender.